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Trading EURUSD and GBPUSD Through the ECB LTRO and Scottish Referendum

Trading EURUSD and GBPUSD Through the ECB LTRO and Scottish Referendum

2014-09-17 23:58:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Currency Strategist
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Talking Points:

• Following the FOMC rate decision, global financial markets are looking for clarity in policy views

• A smoldering risk for the British Pound, the Scottish Independence vote is due tomorrow

• Meanwhile, the ECB's Targeted-LTRO will likely weigh the Euro over time regardless of the outcome

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Having passed the first wave of scheduled event risk (the FOMC rate decision), the FX market braces for the next fundamental break. The Scottish Referendum and ECB allotment of its first Targeted Long-Term Refinancing Operation (TLTRO) are two distinct fundamental events, but they each pose a significant threat of volatility to the Pound and Euro respectively. Unlike the Fed's efforts to blunt its impact, these events are clear in their purpose and outcome. For the Pound, the far greater potential for a currency and market reaction is a 'Yes' vote for independence. For the ECB, the Euro may slide in the medium-term regardless of a small or large uptake. We discuss these events and their scenarios in today's Strategy Video.

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