Talking Points:
• BoE rate expectations are a key fundamental driver for the pound and August CPI data is due today
• GBPUSD's Short-term expected volatility levels are at 4 year highs while reversal risk is at 6-year highs
• Yet, as important as the BoE's time table is for the pound, Scotland's referendum is far more severe risk
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Interest rate expectations drove GBPUSD nearly 2400 points higher in 12 months through July, and they also retraced half that move in the past two months. The timing and pace of a return to tightening for the Bank o England (BoE) has been a key driver for the sterling, and few fundamental cues can change the tide as effectively as the UK inflation figures - particularly CPI. The August price measures are due in the upcoming session, and the market's are extremely tense with short-term implied (expected) volatility readings at four-year highs and reversal risk at a six-year high. Yet, is this tension set to snap today? Or is there somethign more pressing ahead? We discuss the pound and its high level risk in today's Strategy Video.
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