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Volatility Measures Will Show Whether We Have Crossed the Rubicon

Volatility Measures Will Show Whether We Have Crossed the Rubicon

2014-08-02 00:34:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist
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Talking Points:

• Volatility indicators - particularly the equities-based VIX - surged this past week

• Swells in activity have proved false portents numerous times before however

• The tipping point between the opportunity of a speculative rebound and true trend change is conviction

Market conditions change, and our strategy should reflect those changes. We have coded the DailyFX-Plus strategies for Breakout, Range and Momentum to adapt to these market shifts.

The jump in volatility following the US GDP reading and FOMC decision didn't deflate into the end of this past week. With some vigor amplifying a gradual shift in activity measures, we face the possibility of a sustainable revival of market participation and the subsequently dawn of a strong bear wave. Of course, we have been here before. And, repeatedly, the possibility of a cleansing fire to wash out leverage and rebalance value has fallen short - serving a short-term speculator drive and quickly returning to consolidation. On the threshold of a true change in market conditions, we discuss what to watch and the trade opportunities to keep tabs on.

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