Guest Commentary: 6 Conditions for a EUR/USD Collapse - 3 Have Been Met!
* We remain medium term bearish and short the Euro but waiting for six conditions to be met before we can be confident it has seen the top and be aggressively short for aggressive weakness.
* Three conditions have been met already.
Following the 1.3710-1.2745 (5 wave trend) decline the Euro:
1. Retraced enough in DISTANCE beyond the 61.8% and curiously now matched the more aggressive 1992 analogy of 69% at 1.3410.
2. Corrected enough in TIME. 53 days following the 44 day decline.
3. Clearly built a lack of upward MOMENTUM necessary for renewed weakness.
However, three conditions haven’t been met.
4. A 5 WAVE C leg from the 1.2795 secondary B wave low. It is clear we have only seen 3 so far.
So although a short term rising wedge following a short term triangle allows a push to 1.3430, the Euro will probably continue to fade above 1.34 until it correct more substantially through 1.3280 to as low as the 1.3175-1.3220 region.
5. FITTING CLIMAX. This will allow the Euro to set up a more fitting spike to complete the C leg and the correction to an ultimate.
6. C=1.618A of 1.3510.We are short and will reduce on any short term weakness around 1,32 looking to sell any such spike for the eventual loss of 1.3110.
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