Guest Commentary: When Will the 4 Bearish AUD/USD Factors be Bullish?
The Aussie continues within the downtrend to the 98.55 confluence target within the broad medium term triangle. So we remain aggressively short guided by 4 important factors.
- The first is, if the Aussie has been within a bullish 18 month triangle then, we need to see a 5 Wave C from the last 1.0580 high. It is clear that it is only now finishing 3 of 3 the best part of the decline nowhere near ending a complete 5 wave decline.
- The second is that this encourages the confluence target between the 9 month C=1.618 objective of 98.55 and the 98.00-30 75% typical retracement of the previous triangle leg. But suggests it should now lose downward momentum.
- Thirdly, the momentum loss needed for an eventual base is also supported the amazing 2007 Volatility fractal that helped time this break down which suggests volatility needs to fall again to suggest a base.
- Fourthly, the SHIFT sentiment triangle continues to highlight sentiment and therefore the need to get the market well and truly bearish.
So a dip today to a likely 9925 short term 5=1 target and channel support should be enough to prompt a recovery back over 1.00 to as high as 1.0065 the 38.2% of the last decline. Although this is enough for us to reduce our shorts, we will continue to sell these rallies against the former 1.0115-1.0150 consolidation lows for at least 9855 and an indication that it’s time to cover shorts and buy…for confirmation of a new uptrend once it regains 1.0220.
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