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What Will it Take to Finally Kindle a SPX, USD/JPY, Dollar Move?

What Will it Take to Finally Kindle a SPX, USD/JPY, Dollar Move?

2016-08-20 02:06:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist
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Talking Points:

  • Technical patterns continue to spell out exceptional tension, but market conditions curb potential
  • Event risk over the come week includes an EU Brexit discussion, PMI figures and the Jackson Hole gathering
  • Range conditions for the likes of EUR/USD, USD/CHF and AUD/USD are more appealing than key breaks on SPX or USD/JPY

See how retail traders are positioning in the majors using the SSI readings on DailyFX's sentiment page.

The juxtaposition of an extreme high for the S&P 500 or precarious position of USD/JPY to the exceptionally low levels of activity (volatility and volume) is striking. It also makes for difficult trading. The tension seems to stage substantial trade potential for a range of pairs and assets, but the motivation never seems to arise. We ended this past week with a number of currency pairs and other market benchmarks staged for major technical moves. Yet, hope that these ideal scenarios will ever be play out grows increasingly feint. Eventually, motivation will meet participation to revive trends. Until then, choosing the appropriate trading approach is crucial.

Looking ahead to the coming week, technical breaks are highly likely for tension-racked technical patterns like those for the S&P 500 and USD/JPY. The former has worked itself into yet another tight congestion pattern, this time a head-and-shoulders to compliment the previous wedge. The later has put monetary policy officials at odds with speculators having pushed the 100 barrier. These are circumstances will likely result in volatility and some modest resolution to offer enough relief from the tension, but not enough motivation to spur conviction and thereby trend. That said, these conditions can certainly offer trade opportunity with the proper approach.

With limited traction for risk trends, the Yen crosses are likely to generate sharp volatility; but a full-fledged bearish trend would be very difficult to muster. The Dollar meanwhile can carry through its fickleness with a leveraged impact from the Jackson Hole Symposium. An event that draws considerable focus from the financial market, traders will be looking for any evidence that the probabilities of a September or 2016 rate hike are changing and translate that shift to price movement. That can make for opportunity in majors like EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF and AUD/USD. No matter where we look, market conditions are going to dictate technical and fundamental response. We look at the setups, motivation and reality for trading next week in this weekend Trading Video.

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