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Technical Focus: Gold Price and USD/JPY Weekend Gap Risk

Technical Focus: Gold Price and USD/JPY Weekend Gap Risk

Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist

Although gold registered 2 weekly closes above the 2011-2012 trendline in 2016 (July and September), this week’s close is the most decisive. The implication is longer term bullish but there are levels to pay attention to from a tactical basis in the near term. 1307 lines up as a possible short term exhaustion point. This level is defined by the January 2015 high and January 2011 low. A parallel from ‘new’ bullish slope crosses the level early next week. Price action is compelling from a median line perspective too. A bullish channel is formed by connecting the 2015 and 2016 lows and extending a parallel from the 2016 high. The center (or median) line has been reached. It’s not uncommon to see a market oscillate around a median line on its first visit. The purpose is to create energy for the next extension in price.

USD/JPY has reached 108.55, which is 2 legs lower from January and the 200 day average (the 55week average is near 108.44). The bottom of the channel from the January high is here as well. However, I’m open to another flush lower with USD/JPY trading on the median line of the structure from the January high. The median line was support in late March and the quick return to the line, on a Friday no less, indicates gap risk over the weekend. The big level below is likely the post U.S. election uncovered close (gap) from 11/11 at 106.60.

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