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Technical Focus: Trying to Figure out EUR/USD

Technical Focus: Trying to Figure out EUR/USD

Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist

EUR/USD has been a good market for you the last few years if you’re style is to fade every ‘breakout’ and ‘breakdown’. At some point, a trend will emerge and this strategy of fading everything will ruin many. When is that ‘some point’? I don’t know but it’s probably soon because this feeling of peak frustration is typical before a directional move.

I’m torn on broader EUR/USD direction at this time (might be better to short euro against something else). DXY (US Dollar Index) is still responding to parallels that relate to the channel from the 2016 low and the index has failed near a high volume from November (101.21). Generally, the current environment is more ‘euro weakness’ than ‘USD strength’. Cable, for example, continues to act well against the USD. The dynamic is evident in EUR/GBP, which broke trendline support today (log scale).

Finally, USD/SEK (Swedish Krona) reversed today after trading through the March high. This is notable because DXY is still below its March high. We’ve seen several of these non-confirmations at broader USD turns so far in 2017. The January 3rd high in DXY occurred as USD/SEK was putting in a lower high (below its December high). The March 27th DXY low occurred as USD/SEK was ABOVE its February low and DXY was below its February low. Proposed channel resistance is still higher in USD/SEK so a few more days of stabbing higher might be needed before it’s ideal to put out USD shorts.

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