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Yellow gold or black gold? Crude has rallied about 9% from trendline support (see here) and gold continues to press against its 200 day average.
Crude has more of a structure to it than gold from my vantage point. The mentioned trendline and recent COT revelations (extreme selling a few weeks ago into the low) make for a decent bullish case. Near term expectations are tempered by the presence of the 2/8 low at 51.25 and a proposed short term trendline and 55 day average that is slightly higher. In other words, crude faces its first test since the lows last week. Don’t be surprised to see a period of ‘back and fill’ but the broader constructive outlook remains.
I’ve been looking for a gold drop into 1220 to turn bullish on a tactical basis but the metal remains stubbornly higher. In fact, gold has been at resistance (1250) for most of the last 3 weeks. The 200 day average is clearly important (tested and failed 3 times so far in 2017) but a push through the average would shift focus to 1278 (61.8% retracement from 2016 decline). If gold comes off now, then 1220 (resistance in January and support in February) should still be watched for support. A break above 1278, which is also the 2011-2012 trendline, would indicate a major change in behavior.
Finally, an analysis of the crude/gold ratio suggests that crude is in a better technical position. The 200 day average has provided support since August 2016 and the turn higher in late March confirmed a trendline.
