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Technical Focus: Big Spots for FTSE, DAX as GBP/USD, EUR/USD Turn Up

Technical Focus: Big Spots for FTSE, DAX as GBP/USD, EUR/USD Turn Up

Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist

Since Brexit, FTSE strength has been a function of GBP/USD weakness. In other words, FTSE tops are coincident with Cable lows and FTSE tops are coincident with Cable lows. Interestingly, GBP/USD is turning up but FTSE is trading at an all-time high. This non-confirmation deserves attention. There are some major resistance points from channels to pay attention in the equity index at slightly higher levels.

The DAX and EUR/USD relationship is similar although less pronounced. Likewise, EUR/USD has turned up but the DAX is at trend highs (ATH would be slightly higher). If the equity indices can turn down from nearby levels, then the moves in EUR/USD and Cable probably accelerate. Note that the FTSE and DAX levels are higher but a period of ‘grinding’ into a top (back and fill price action before a turn) may be in store as the currencies hold their own (also back and fill but in a series of short term higher lows).

Specific to EUR/USD, a move through 1.0820 would make higher swing highs and lows following a false breakdown in late 2016-early 2017 and potentially lead to the biggest ‘short squeeze’ (rally) in years.

Specific to GBP/USD, a channel has been in play in recent weeks. Price rode the channel for 6 days before finally turning up. The 55 day average (now) and 1.2390 (good pivot since November) may prove tough in the near term (now) and short term channel resistance is mid-1.2400s.

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