News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
Oil - US Crude
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Technical analysis of charts aims to identify patterns and market trends by utilizing differing forms of technical chart types and other chart functions. Learn about the top three technical analysis tools here:
  • The Australian Dollar still remains vulnerable as it extends losses against its major counterparts. What is the road ahead for AUD/USD, AUD/JPY, AUD/NZD and AUD/CAD? Get your AUD technical forecast from @ddubrovskyFX here:
  • The ISM manufacturing index plays an important role in forex trading, with ISM data influencing currency prices globally. Learn about the importance of the ISM manufacturing index here:
  • Take a closer look visually at the most influential global importers and exporters here:
  • EUR/USD tumbled last week on the day of the ECB’s latest policy announcement, and that weakness is set to continue this week as a flood of major Eurozone economic statistics is released. Get your weekly Euro forecast from @MartinSEssex here:
  • Trading bias allows traders to make informative decisions when dealing in the market. This relates to both novice and experienced traders alike. Start learning how you may be able to make more informed decisions here:
  • Greed is a natural human emotion that affects individuals to varying degrees. Unfortunately, when viewed in the context of trading, greed has proven to be a hindrance more often than it has assisted traders. Learn how to control greed in trading here:
  • Gold price action is primed for volatility next week with the Fed decision on deck. How real yields and the US Dollar react to fresh guidance from Fed officials will be key for gold outlook. Get your weekly gold forecast from @RichDvorakFX here:
  • Forex liquidity makes it easy for traders to sell and buy currencies without delay, and also creates tight spreads for favorable quotes. Low costs and large scope to various markets make it the most frequently traded market in the world. Learn more here:
  • Canadian Dollar snapped a three-week losing streak after USD/CAD stalled at key technical resistance. Get your CAD weekly forecast from @MBForex here:
S&P 500 Break, USDMXN Trend or EURUSD Range To Start Next Week?

S&P 500 Break, USDMXN Trend or EURUSD Range To Start Next Week?

John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist

S&P 500, USDCNH, USDMXN, NZDUSD Talking Points:

  • Following the strong open this past week, there wasn’t much in the way of traction for risk trends
  • Top fundamental charge is unclear heading into next week, but my top concerns are US-Chinese relations (lean negative) or coronavirus (lean positive) headlines
  • Should the markets favor breakouts, trends or congestion; I have markets to watch, including S&P 500, USDMXN and EURUSD respectively

Risk Trends Leave Us Holding Our Breath for Next Week

There was an enormous amount of pressure to build up into the end of this past week with a smattering of tentative technical breaks and just as many prominent sentient benchmarks leveling up to their key barriers. Traders were waiting with bated breath to see how the collective sentiment would play out. And yet, that critical make-or-break wouldn’t be decided before liquidity drained for the weekend. This is now a decision – with heavy consequences for global markets – to be deferred to next week. What’s more, a run of high profile and unscheduled fundamental themes will keep what could be the ultimate driver murky while a Monday holiday for the UK and US markets will throw another liquidity curve ball. Patience will once again prove an important trader virtue.

Chart of S&P 500 with 100 and 200-Day Moving Averages (Daily)

Chart of S&P 500

Chart Created on Tradingview Platform

Among the headline speculative readings I like to follow, the S&P 500 remains my preferred, imperfect representation of global capital markets and their irrational lines. Aside from its gap open Monday, the index found little-to-no progress through active trade. That kept it conspicuously between a range of resistance (100 and 200-day moving averages, psychological level) at 3,000 while immediate support was a former ceiling at 2,940. I add my poll from earlier in the week to remind us of how antsy market participants are. It is likely we clear that 60-point range in the first 48 hours of trade in the new week, but a true debate of transition to trend won’t likely arise until we clear either 3,000 or 2,800.

Twitter Poll on S&P 500 Ability to Overtake 3,000

Twitter Poll on S&P 500

Poll from, @JohnKicklighter

What Holds the Greatest Potential/Risk to Start Next Week?

With considerations of an unsteady balance in risk trends, a liquidity gap to open next week and conspicuous lack of singular-influence events on the economic docket, the next inevitable drive for the capital markets is difficult gauge. I put to twitter a list of familiar themes these past week to see which driver this speculative enclave thought was most likely to disturb the uneasy peace. Updates on recession and stimulus matters are low on my list of levered market movement as the market has shown a penchant to downplay troubling updates on severe recession while the most recent stimulus efforts have been met with similar apathy. Coronavirus and trade war matters on the other hand are so untracked as to open door to serious impact.

Twitter Poll on Key Theme Potential Next Week

Twitter Poll on Key Fundamental Themes

Poll from, @JohnKicklighter

Though the state of world health and economic health under the pandemic would suggest that coronavirus headlines would be rife for fear and outright panic, recent trends suggest the opposite. A constant stream of updates on cases and deaths associated to Covid-19 has anesthetized us to the pain of reality. That in turn, amplifies the ‘positive’ headlines where they arise. We have seen this phenomena these past few weeks in the progression of headlines trumpeting a possible vaccine for the virus from Gilead then Moderna and most recently AstraZeneca. Many officials have suggested a vaccine is necessary for a true and lasting economic recovery, and the markets seem to be of a similar mind.

Chart of AstraZeneca with Moderna in Red and Gilead in Blue (Daily)

Chart of AstraZeneca, Moderna, Gilead

Chart Created on Tradingview Platform

Where coronavirus headlines surprisingly find a skew in potential for bullish updates, the headlines around US-Chinese relations seem to lean in the opposite direction. Simply finding the largest economies in the world are avoiding another slide into trade wars is not exactly the foundation of a roaring speculative run. Alternatively, sliding back into protectionist habits with detrimental global growth implications could readily leverage fears like those in August 2015 or 4Q 2018 that would hit a volatile backdrop at present. I will watch this risk in particular through the weekend and into the opening swell of liquidity next week.

Chart of S&P 500 with CNHUSD Exchange Rate Overlaid (Weekly)

Chart of USDCNH and S&P 500

Chart Created on Tradingview Platform

Have Trend and Range Options Ready to Go

For most of us navigating the market, we defer to what we consider our particular expertise. That often results in a strategy that aligns to one of the three dominant market types (range, breakout or trend) – though many believe their approach is more responsive to a single market type than it may be. Given the circumstances, I think there is a high probability of breakout risk and the S&P 500 will be at the top of my list in that category. Yet, break is a transitory phase between range and trend, so it is worth considering these other market forms with options and strategy ready to go should it come to pass. A trend born of risk aversion next week would start with a significant break which would offer some time to sort options. That said, a lower probability (in my view) productive ‘risk-on’ trend has few willing representatives. The emerging market FX currencies are one exception – USDMXN, USDZAR and even USDBRL are pairs I’ve followed recently.

Chart of USDMXN with Inverted EEM Emerging Market ETF Overlaid ( Daily)

USDMXN and Emerging Market ETF

Chart Created on Tradingview Platform

If, on the other hand, we fall back into congestion, there are plenty of candidates to consider. However, I’m less interested in the false-break-reversal candidates like the S&P 500 or AUDUSD as they will have undermined the guidance in the technical guidelines. I mentioned EURUSD and USDCAD in yesterday’s video and they both still represent good options for that outcome – though they have already retraced significant ground. NZDUSD is in a similar cut with well-established technical levels and hasn’t committed to too much retreat.

Chart of NZDUSD with 100-day Moving Averages (Daily)

Chart of NZDUSD

Chart Created on Tradingview Platform

If you want to download my Manic-Crisis calendar, you can find the updated file here.


DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.