0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bullish
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Many people are attracted to forex trading due to the amount of leverage that brokers provide. Leverage allows traders to gain more exposure in financial markets than what they are required to pay for. Learn about FX leverage here: https://t.co/3FsnNdo7VK https://t.co/lC69rPbkcJ
  • $AUDUSD just weakened slightly following disappointing Chinese industrial production and retail sales data What is the Aussie facing over the next 24 hours and heading into next week? #AUD https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market_alert/2020/08/14/Australian-Dollar-Outlook-Eyes-SP-500-Retail-Sales-After-Chinese-Data.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Dubrovsky&utm_campaign=twr https://t.co/b9pmxMkp8o
  • 🇨🇳 Unemployment Rate (JUL) Actual: 5.7% Previous: 5.7% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-08-14
  • 🇨🇳 Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) YoY (JUL) Actual: -1.6% Expected: -1.6% Previous: -3.1% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-08-14
  • 🇨🇳 Industrial Production YoY (JUL) Actual: 4.8% Expected: 5.1% Previous: 4.8% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-08-14
  • 🇨🇳 Retail Sales YoY (JUL) Actual: -1.1% Expected: 0.1% Previous: -1.8% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-08-14
  • Heads Up:🇨🇳 Unemployment Rate (JUL) due at 02:00 GMT (15min) Previous: 5.7% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-08-14
  • Heads Up:🇨🇳 Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) YoY (JUL) due at 02:00 GMT (15min) Expected: -1.6% Previous: -3.1% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-08-14
  • Heads Up:🇨🇳 Industrial Production YoY (JUL) due at 02:00 GMT (15min) Expected: 5.1% Previous: 4.8% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-08-14
  • Heads Up:🇨🇳 Retail Sales YoY (JUL) due at 02:00 GMT (15min) Expected: 0.1% Previous: -1.8% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-08-14
Count Down to Trade War Engagement, Dollar Interst in NFPs, Oil Turning

Count Down to Trade War Engagement, Dollar Interst in NFPs, Oil Turning

2018-07-06 02:30:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist
Share:

Talking Points:

  • Despite the return of American liquidity following the mid-week holiday, volumes held low and the Dow dove deeper into range
  • Trade wars continue to command the headlines with the US-China tariffs due to go into effect at Friday midnight
  • Though Euro and Pound are dealing with key themes, resolution is difficult to muster compared to USDCAD on jobs, trade data

What do the DailyFX Analysts expect from the Dollar, Euro, Equities, Oil and more through the 3Q 2018? Download forecasts for these assets and more with technical and fundamental insight from the DailyFX Trading Guides page.

What is Driving the Risk Trends?

It is a simple yet complicated question at the same time: what is driving risk trends? Theoretically, the markets are in a better position to mount a significant move should fear or conviction finally take the market. US traders are back online after the liquidity drain for the mid-week Independence Day market holiday. Well, it is at least open for trade. Turnover Thursday in the US and other global markets showed little enthusiasm to simply jump back into the market with full conviction. That lack of conviction should come as little surprise given the circumstances. The fundamental backdrop is overloaded with both scheduled event risk and even greater open-ended threats. There are positives the market could pick up on if so inclined. Another company has announced a hefty share buyback scheme (Glencore to the tune of $1 billion) and there are reports the EU may give some ground to cool US President Trump's troubling drive towards auto import taxes. Yet, the risks are simply far more onerous and numerous. With the US-Chinese tariffs due to go into effect, the EU separately agreeing to place metals tariffs on the US and enough data to further economic forecasts; market participants should see reason for caution.

Count Down to Trade War Engagement, Dollar Interst in NFPs, Oil Turning

The Dollar is Starting to Grow Heavy

Should the Greenback continue to rise because it has the most hawkish monetary policy bearing of all the majors or perhaps because it is the traditionally preferred safe haven in the FX ranks? Or, perhaps the benchmark currency represents one of the most at-risk baseline currencies owing to its central role in the escalation of global trade wars? There is no agreement on this view, but there is plenty of speculation supporting both positions. Just weeks ago, the rate advantage and textbook haven role was a unique contradiction that nevertheless offered the Dollar consistent buoyancy. Nowadays, the prominence of retaliatory trade efforts by world powers and the loose threats of a collaborative response against the United States are familiar enough that the more complicated but systemic view is starting to break into the mainstream headlines. With the US duties versus China finally due to go into effect and the further escalations with both its largest single counterpart (China) and aggregate trade partner (the EU) still lingering in the air, there is unresolved risk for traders to remain concerned over. Yet, we will also have a targeted fundamental impact in the form of scheduled event risk: June NFPs and the May trade balance. With a clear outcome, if these indicators signal a dovish turn for monetary policy and economic pinch from trade wars; it could hasten a Dollar reversal.

Count Down to Trade War Engagement, Dollar Interst in NFPs, Oil Turning

Euro, Pound and Loonie for Escalating Event Risk

The Dollar isn't the only currency that will face significant event risk over the final 24 hours of the trading week. The Euro will carry the most abstract event risk versus key data. There is very little in the way of consequential event risk on the shared currency's calendar, but the themes are loaded. This past session, the IMF downgraded Germany's economic outlook for 2018 owing to rising protectionism and the influence of Brexit while the EU members voted to approve a tariff on US metals to retaliate against the US. Trade wars will be on the mind after the US and China implement their taxes and reports that the EU may compromise on autos offers to head off a crisis. The Pound's milestones are more timely but no less systemic: following reports that the Brexit Minister David Davis is leading pressure against UK Prime Minister May who is warming to a soft Brexit, the full UK cabinet is due to discuss its customs position Friday. By far, the most targeted event risk will come from the Canadian dollar. With a run of jobs and trade data hitting at the same time as the US equivalent, USDCAD will be an exceptionally loaded pair Friday.

Count Down to Trade War Engagement, Dollar Interst in NFPs, Oil Turning

Oil and Gold Look to be Staging Reversals

Where USDCNH and GBPUSD are attempting to sustain trends while the Dow and EURUSD are looking for break from congestion, key commodities are posing a different technical path: reversals. With the Dollar starting to slip, its alternative-currency foil gold has started down the path of a possible medium-term bear trends from $1,240 with a three-day advance. If risk aversion is to coincide with a retreat from the Greenback - increasingly probably with the premium afforded to the Fed and the United States' central role in trade wars - this commodity is arguably in the best position to benefit. Crude oil is another commodity looking to round into a turn - however this one is coming off a multi-week bull trend. The past weeks’ worth of trade has shaped consolidation at the top of an extended channel and Thursday's performance was the first clear retreat. Headlines have run from a jump in US inventories (1.25 million barrels) to US President Trump demanding OPEC increase output to Iran's Oil Minister saying $100/barrel oil is inevitable due to the US president. Will this commodity finally follow traditional fundamentals? And if so, will the picture be clear enough to make way for a trend? We discuss all of this and more in today's Trading Video.

Count Down to Trade War Engagement, Dollar Interst in NFPs, Oil Turning

If you want to download my Manic-Crisis calendar, you can find the updated file here.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.