We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Wall Street
Bullish
Gold
Bullish
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • My trading video for today: 'S&P 500 Closes Best Week in 45 Years Unperturbed by Data, Helped by Fed' https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2020/04/10/SP-500-Closes-Best-Week-in-45-Years-Unperturbed-by-Data-Helped-by-Fed.html?ref-author=Kicklighter&QPID=917719&CHID=9
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 95.22%, while traders in Wall Street are at opposite extremes with 78.06%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/35HQhfNLVr
  • Forex Update: As of 04:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇯🇵JPY: 0.12% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.11% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.09% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.04% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.03% 🇳🇿NZD: 0.01% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/eTpRMCtc2k
  • Indices Update: As of 04:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Germany 30: 1.33% France 40: 1.21% Wall Street: 0.29% US 500: 0.26% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/okA8WJ8OLb
  • #Gold prices well-supported as keeping interest rates ultra-low in response to the 2008 global financial crisis proves problematic for fighting the next one, the #coronavirus outbreak. Get your $XAUUSD market update from @DavidCottleFX here:https://t.co/zNpjufGv2b https://t.co/iUtAYQYi8D
  • #Dow Jones, DAX 40 and CAC 40 short exposure has been rising alongside their recent ascents. What can this mean for the outlook in global stock markets? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/NBlD6xlQRb https://t.co/Ra6C480Czl
  • Commodities Update: As of 02:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 1.18% Silver: 0.00% Gold: 0.00% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/BBFCXmkgWy
  • Forex Update: As of 02:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇬🇧GBP: -0.00% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.01% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.02% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.09% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.11% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.12% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/sN5ig7prHE
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 95.33%, while traders in Wall Street are at opposite extremes with 78.06%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/lm7hFY5ytq
  • The #Euro is struggling to build upward momentum against the US Dollar despite a break above near-term resistance. The overall trend bias still seems to favor the downside. Get your $EURUSD market update from @IlyaSpivak here:https://t.co/CsmTKIgxPx https://t.co/RB4yi5UL7M
Markets Anxious to See S&P 500, VIX, Dollar Bearing Tuesday

Markets Anxious to See S&P 500, VIX, Dollar Bearing Tuesday

2018-02-20 00:00:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist
Share:

Talking Points:

  • The US markets were closed Monday for the President's Day holiday, curbing the natural evolution of risk trends
  • Weeks of extreme volatility with a slide and bounce in risk assets makes 'sentiment' the primary concern for the week ahead
  • For the Dollar and Euro ahead, top scheduled event risk remains monetary policy oriented

What makes for a 'great' trader? Strategy is important but there are many ways we can analyze to good trades. The most important limitations and advances are found in our own psychology. Download the DailyFX Building Confidence in Trading and Traits of Successful Traders guides to learn how to set your course from the beginning.

Tuesday is the Real Start to the Week

The slow start to the new trading week will satisfy few traders. With the US offline for the President's Day market holiday, few were willing to make any real commitment to the reviving the previous week's bounce or the dramatic collapse in capital markets that will more uniquely define February. Checking on risk trends outside of the United States market's influence, we would see shares in Europe fall while those in Asia fell. More aggressive risk assets such as carry, merging market and junk bonds were just as thoroughly mixed. It would be wise not to make any lasting investment calls on the basis of what we have seen Monday - but in reality, it would be just as dubious an evaluation to base any big-picture, heavy-exposure and long-duration trades without a more comprehensive progress on systemic risk trends.

Markets Anxious to See S&P 500, VIX, Dollar Bearing Tuesday

The Dollar Recovery Seeks Out a Benefactor

It is always worthwhile to see who benefits during periods of inactivity, and the Greenback seemed to be just such a opportunist. This is not an indication of any particular connection/motivation by risk trends, monetary policy or other theme; but simply that there has been a strong pressure on the short interest behind the greenback that naturally ebbs with liquidity. That adds some weight to the recent technical support developed by the DXY Dollar Index and gives a little more sway to the EUR/USD's heavy, multi-year resistance around 1.2550/2600. Yet, a concerted rebound in the Greenback's favor requires some fundamental drive. Moderate event risk from the US starts Wednesday (PMIs and existing home sales), Fed speak picks up Thursday and the Fed's semi-annual monetary policy report to congress will be released Friday. In the meantime, we are left to unscheduled influences like protectionism, credit quality speculation and cross currency winds.

Markets Anxious to See S&P 500, VIX, Dollar Bearing Tuesday

Euro Looks to Monetary Policy, Pound to Brexit

EUR/USD cuts one of the most attractive short and medium-term technical pictures; but as with anything else, motivation is the key. The Euro itself has proven one of the most speculatively laden currencies amongst the majors with a 14-month climb that is significantly dependent on speculative interests. The discounted currency has been driven higher in part by an aggressive speculative outlook for the ECB to turn the corner on monetary policy and provide the same kind of windfall for undervalued assets that the Fed's policy turn produced more than three years ago. That is why my interests for pairs like EUR/USD, EUR/JPY and EUR/GBP lay less with data (like the investor sentiment surveys) or EU leaders meeting and focuses more squarely on the ECB meeting minutes Thursday. The Pound is a similar beast. There will be plenty to preoccupy us this week from UK jobless claims to BoE officials speaking, but bearing down on the catalyst, the focus should be on Brexit updates. Unfortunately, that comes without time table or binary scenarios.

Aligning New Zealand Data to Technicals?

I always attempt to align technicals to fundamentals for short-term, volatility-induced moves. That is what draws me to NZD/USD. There is a clear, overriding theme to preoccupy this pair over weeks and months: risk trends. However, in the meantime, we are coming off an immediate resistance on a clean technical pattern and there is event risk a measurable level of speculative impact on the docket: the producer inflation (PPI) report for the fourth quarter. Will there be enough in the data to charge a good swing back into range for NZD/USD or can it make a 'path of least resistance' move? What will EUR/NZD do with a different technical profile? We look at the short-term and definitive up to the abstract and big-picture in today's Trading Video.

Markets Anxious to See S&P 500, VIX, Dollar Bearing Tuesday

To receive John’s analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.