News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • The #Dollar has bottoming potential, but that is starting to lose weight as it fails to sustain any lift; next week could be a big one for #USD’s near-term outlook. Get your #currencies update from @PaulRobinsonFX here: https://t.co/IifHjik7gM https://t.co/R9b4jdTPnO
  • Emotions are often a key driving force behind #FOMO. If left unchecked, they can lead traders to neglect trading plans and exceed comfortable levels of risk. Read on and get your emotions in check here:https://t.co/eILWbFgHRE https://t.co/lW1rqjpy0x
  • I’d like to thank my followers, I just reached 5,000 which is quite a milestone for someone that isn’t a huge fan of the platform. Thank you all very much ❤️
  • Technology stocks continue to be a source of weakness for US equities, undermining risk appetite. Meanwhile, US-China tensions simmer beneath the surface creating uncertainty. Get your #equities update from @PeterHanksFX here: https://t.co/yH8oTwT3iW https://t.co/tvfrXThyaC
  • There are many different types of forex orders, which traders use to manage their trades. While these may vary between different brokers, there tends to be several basic FX order types all brokers accept. Learn about different FX order types here: https://t.co/lIJdiz4xSz https://t.co/Xi9QU3ADPF
  • Did you know a Doji candlestick signals market indecision and the potential for a change in direction. What are the top five types of Doji candlesticks? Find out: https://t.co/td5WA4hCZC https://t.co/cQwbeZ6Feq
  • #Oil prices saw a reprieve to the recent selling pressure but remain at risk while below downtrend resistance. Here are the levels that matter on the #WTI technical chart. Get your #commodities update from @MBForex here: https://t.co/CcXsF3JCMH https://t.co/RUmS1cX52v
  • Forex liquidity makes it easy for traders to sell and buy currencies without delay, and also creates tight spreads for favorable quotes. Low costs and large scope to various markets make it the most frequently traded market in the world. Learn more here: https://t.co/5uSWKoLkd6 https://t.co/boEI8RuQdC
  • The growth-linked New Zealand Dollar may rise on the upcoming #RBNZ rate decision following rosy economic data. However, downside potential in the S&P 500 could offset $NZDUSD gains. Get your #currencies update from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/LfCe6C6G3P https://t.co/kUeBxxeaEf
  • It was a quiet week in Aussie as $AUDUSD put in its second consecutive week of indecision. But taking a more granular look highlights the potential for a reversal scenario. Get your #currencies update from @JStanleyFX here: https://t.co/PPK20nubAf https://t.co/0nfmRRFNnz
S&P 500 Slide Continues, Bitcoin Soars Above $13,000, Pound Turning

S&P 500 Slide Continues, Bitcoin Soars Above $13,000, Pound Turning

2017-12-07 01:45:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist
Share:

Emerging markets and Bitcoin have lapped the S&P 500 for risk trend leadership. Meanwhile, the Pound's long-term trend ambitions have grown cloudy while the Australian and Canadian dollars have suffered at the hands of rate decisions.

Talking Points:

  • Risk trends remain uneven with SPX in a 4-day slide, emerging markets gapping lower and Bitcoin absorbing speculative appetite
  • Dollar has seen a slow rebound but rate potential is shallow, but the Pound's loss of altitude can prove severe on a Brexit turn
  • Abrupt Canadian and Australian Dollars moves follow rate decisions while a key oil technical breakdown looks like moderation

Are you following the market impact and trade potential of the Fed, ECB and BoE rate decisions? What are the top fundamental themes for the coming week? Do you have market, trading or strategy questions you want answered? See what live webinars we have scheduled on the DailyFX Webinar Calendar.

A broad charge for the speculative markets is losing traction. Risk oriented assets are starting to take divergent paths in a chase for outperformers that reflects a broader 'stock picking' appeal. In US indices - where there is the greatest long-term outperformance - the S&P 500 has increased the tally on its slide to four consecutive days. And yet, the progress through this short decline is far from the high intensity necessary to turn the tide to a bear trend knowing December is a month historically of drained momentum. If we are focusing on the very pinnacle of over-extended exposure through US equites, the Nasdaq carries more baggage with the tech sector in territory well beyond the bubble days of 1999 and 2000. That context in mind, there is a distinct head-and-shoulders pattern. The technical implications are there, but the fundamental shove is still difficult to muster. Across global indices, junk assets and carry; there is mixed bearing and little motivation. Yet, there is still speculative drive. The emerging markets (EEM and Chinese equities) suffered a significant gap lower to potentially break critical trendline support. On the opposite end of the spectrum, it is speculative appetite that has carried Bitcoin beyond yet another milestone at $13,000 to carry one the most unique and profound emergent moves seen in years in the financial system.

It is not remarkable that there is restraint in the general course of risk appetite. We know December is historically one of the most restrained calendar months in terms of volatility and volume. At the same time, it is also one of the best performance for risk appetite - there is typically a bullish drift if the S&P 500 is considered a reliable baseline for speculative bearings. Going back to 1928, the month of December has registered an averaged a 1.4 percent advance. Alternatively, given the exceptional exposure that has built up over the year, there is an anxiety of over-exposure that is rising in the markets. It would seem reasonable that a retreat would be likely amid the headlines that have prevailed recently. News of the special investigation in the US getting closer to the Trump administration and raising political uncertainty, central banks moving to establish general exit plans and financial pressures growing in key developed and developing countries. So far, sentiment has not ratcheted back its exposure in the face of these uncertainties. And to its credit, nor has the US-centric uncertainty phased the Dollar.

The Greenback is certainly not a high flyer like equities, but it has just as much to lose in the face of political uncertainty in the US. Yet, the currency has slowly risen the past 48 hours. The ADP payrolls report struck a familiar chord in rate speculation, but it is difficult to register true gains through this channel - even through Friday's NFPs. Looking at Fed Funds futures through the end of next year, the markets are nearly pricing in three quarter percent hikes, and yet the Dollar has not advanced on this hawkish advantage. That said, the Dollar could still gain should its major counterparts slide under their own weight. Over the past couple of days, the RBA and BoC offered no optimism for hikes later down the line. In turn, both the Aussie and Canadian Dollars have slipped with noteworthy short-term setups resulting (like the USD/CAD range). And yet, there is still serious movement to be found in the markets. Crude oil Wednesday registered a critical drop that cleared a medium-term trendline and jeopardizes the restrained effort to mount a bull trend after a multi-year break higher. And, then there is Bitcoin. This market is proving unique in its charge with the biggest daily rally since July as it clears another mile marker at $13,000. There is no mistaking the hallmark of aggressive - perhaps reckless - speculative appetite. We discuss all of this and more in today's Trading Video.

To receive John’s analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE.

S&P 500 Slide Continues, Bitcoin Soars Above $13,000, Pound TurningS&P 500 Slide Continues, Bitcoin Soars Above $13,000, Pound TurningS&P 500 Slide Continues, Bitcoin Soars Above $13,000, Pound TurningS&P 500 Slide Continues, Bitcoin Soars Above $13,000, Pound Turning

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES