News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
Oil - US Crude
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Trading bias allows traders to make informative decisions when dealing in the market. This relates to both novice and experienced traders alike. Start learning how you may be able to make more informed decisions here:
  • Greed is a natural human emotion that affects individuals to varying degrees. Unfortunately, when viewed in the context of trading, greed has proven to be a hindrance more often than it has assisted traders. Learn how to control greed in trading here:
  • Gold price action is primed for volatility next week with the Fed decision on deck. How real yields and the US Dollar react to fresh guidance from Fed officials will be key for gold outlook. Get your weekly gold forecast from @RichDvorakFX here:
  • Forex liquidity makes it easy for traders to sell and buy currencies without delay, and also creates tight spreads for favorable quotes. Low costs and large scope to various markets make it the most frequently traded market in the world. Learn more here:
  • Canadian Dollar snapped a three-week losing streak after USD/CAD stalled at key technical resistance. Get your CAD weekly forecast from @MBForex here:
  • Forex quotes reflect the price of different currencies at any point in time. Since a trader’s profit or loss is determined by movements in price, it is essential to develop a sound understanding of how to read currency pairs. Learn how to read quotes here:
  • A currency carry trade involves borrowing a low-yielding currency in order to buy a higher yielding currency in an attempt to profit from the interest rate differential. Find out if the carry trade suits your trading style here:
  • Get your snapshot update of the of top level exchanges and key index performance from around the globe here:
  • Traders utilize varying time frames to speculate in the forex market. The two most common are long- and short-term-time frames which transmits through to trend and trigger charts. Learn more about time-frame analysis here:
  • The Nasdaq 100 index is aiming to breach a key resistance level at 14,950 for a second time. A successful attempt may open the door to further gains, although the MACD indicator flags signs of weakness. Get your equities forecast from @margaretyjy here:
From US to Global Equities, High Yield to Yen Crosses; Markets are Struggling

From US to Global Equities, High Yield to Yen Crosses; Markets are Struggling

John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist

One of the last holds outs in speculative complacency-as-conviction has made troubling moves towards reversal. The S&P 500 has put pressure on a distinct head-and-shoulders pattern, and the implications for the broader markets can prove frightful for some and unprecedented opportunity for others.

Talking Points:

  • Other risk benchmarks (junk bonds, global indexes) were already sliding; but the holdouts in the S&P 500 and VIX joined in Wednesday
  • Full scale risk aversion carries deep implications for the markets so conviction on intent should not be set easily
  • The Dollar is pulled between carry and haven, Pound between Brexit and BoE, Bitcoin between legitimacy and volatility

We are half way through the fourth quarter. See what the DailyFX analysts' forecasted for the Dollar, Euro, equity indexes and more through the end of the year? Download the 4Q forecasts on DailyFX.

It is certainly too early to call a full scale turn in risk trends, but evidence is building that investors' anxiety is starting to overwhelm their commitment to complacency. We have been monitoring conviction in passive speculative reach for some time as the underlying value to throw-in with the crowd was widely divergent from the risk such exposure would represent. However, concerns over the proper valuation metrics are rarely useful for traders who are attempting to navigate often irrational markets. Yet, vigilance means preparation and an ability to react when tides do change and assumptions of value see potential seismic course corrections that trigger systemic market movements. Taking one additional step towards swing to the pendulum in the opposite direction is the intensified correlation across risk-influenced assets in their retreat.

There have been early signs for a possible slide in market conviction in certain assets for a week or more. The junk bond (high yield corporate debt) market has been the most prominent and aggressive in its correction for weeks, but deflating some of its excess alone would not necessarily catalyze a market-wide rebalance. When global equities like the German DAX, UK's FTSE 100 and Japanese Nikkei 225 dropped; concern started to spill into the more traditional and complacent markets. Now, the pressure is getting to the point that it is even spreading to the most prominent hold outs. US equities have staged reversal patterns and have made tentative threats to mark breaks. The S&P 500 had confirmed its head-and-shoulders pattern earlier this week, and this past session saw a distinct test of the support ('neckline') to that pattern. It has yet to develop into a clean and momentous break, but the dive caters to deep skepticism throughout the market and adds to the a subtle but tangible six consecutive days of gaps with lower opens. The US stock market's fear gauge - the VIX - has also seen a quick rise and finds itself on the cusp of a large technical pattern itself. Normally I wouldn't apply chart evaluation to an indicator, but the securitization of volatility products makes it more relevant.

Another signal that global speculation is souring is the realignment of Yen crosses. Carry trade has been the largest and earliest departure from the risk-oriented pack. It has refused the light swings in sentiment that have been founded on complacency rather than genuine fear or greed - perhaps because the income component is so overt for this investment vehicle. This past session, USD/JPY and other Yen crosses offered a move that aligned to the more conformist assets. USD/JPY in particular cleared a head-and-shoulders pattern of its own - and with a little more definitiveness. It carries more points of support for follow through, but conviction in risk aversion is the most effective and influential theme to carry necessary follow through. So, I will look for conviction. In the meantime, neither the Dollar nor gold are reverting to their roles as absolute havens which is a gauge of how shallow fear still is. EUR/USD will not be set back on its reversal course easily. Ahead, the Fed speak and import inflation figures will not likely tip the scales for the Greenback. Similarly, the Pound has a round of key BoE speakers (including Governor Carney), but the competition between monetary policy and Brexit is staunch. Another fundamental theme pull exists for Bitcoin. A possible Zimbabwe coup makes for a dramatic headline for the cryptocurrency, but the real interest is in the speculative appetite like that suggested by Man Group versus the legitimacy debate which was forwarded by news of Square testing payments in Bitcoin. We discuss tipping critical balances and throwing off uncertainty for clear breaks and trend in today's Trading Video.

To receive John’s analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE.

From US to Global Equities, High Yield to Yen Crosses; Markets are StrugglingFrom US to Global Equities, High Yield to Yen Crosses; Markets are StrugglingFrom US to Global Equities, High Yield to Yen Crosses; Markets are Struggling

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.