News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 93.33%, while traders in NZD/USD are at opposite extremes with 75.64%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/yjvp0kn5Ab
  • Indices Update: As of 21:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Germany 30: 0.07% France 40: 0.02% Wall Street: 0.01% US 500: 0.01% FTSE 100: 0.01% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/AWgEa62SzF
  • 🇰🇷 Consumer Confidence (NOV) Actual: 97.9 Previous: 91.6 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-11-23
  • Heads Up:🇰🇷 Consumer Confidence (NOV) due at 21:00 GMT (15min) Previous: 91.6 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-11-23
  • Fed's Evans: -Still waiting for many sectors to recover -Won't have good reading on economy until next spring -Virus creates uncertainty for CMRE -Extra fiscal support would ease a lot of uncertainty -Does not see FOMC raising rates before late 2023 $USD $DXY $SPX $GOLD
  • President-Elect Joe Biden reportedly to nominate former Fed Chair Janet Yellen as Treasury Secretary -BBG
  • Heads Up:🇺🇸 Fed Evans Speech due at 20:00 GMT (15min) https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-11-23
  • Mexican #Peso Outlook: $USDMXN Bears Tire Near Downtrend Support - https://t.co/jAj7zvgayX https://t.co/85A7FqpcKu
  • Commodities Update: As of 19:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: -0.10% Gold: -1.80% Silver: -2.46% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/5s4ojZBdDF
  • EUR/USD price action pivots 70-pips lower in a big intraday reversal. Get your $EURUSD market update from @RichDvorakFX here:https://t.co/U1SSBtFMlb https://t.co/IwayQbwcZW
North Korea, Elections nor Mon Pol Yet to Trigger EURUSD, VIX

North Korea, Elections nor Mon Pol Yet to Trigger EURUSD, VIX

2017-09-26 00:30:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist
Share:

Talking Points:

  • Rhetoric by North Korea's Foreign Minister accusing the US of declaring war manages to escalate a global threat to markets
  • Both Merkel's win in the German election and inconclusive outcome for New Zealand result in uncertainty for Euro, Kiwi
  • Monetary policy is still a key theme this week with Fed, ECB and BoJ officials already weighing in policy limitations

How have retail traders changed their positioning in EURUSD, the Dollar-based majors and US equity indexes following the Fed rate decision? Visit our DailyFX Sentiment page to find out.

Traders should be extra cautious about their navigations in the market. Taking care with exposure and unexpected pockets of volatility was already advisable given the erosion of fundamental stability behind the financial system and excessive risk taking to this point. The value of keeping tabs on our trades - not to mention the correlations that can re-emerge - as well as maintaining sound plans in the event that we need to beat hasty exits amid liquidity trouble is greater than it has ever been. The chief source of concern to start this new trading week is North Korea. The country's standoff with the United States managed to intensify over the weekend and into the first trading session of this new week. US President Trump made off handed remarks aimed at the Korean leader to which the latter's foreign minister alleged were tantamount to declaring war. Despite the remarkable complacency infecting the global financial system, it would be difficult to ignore a war that has threatened the US of nuclear weapons as a catalyst for broad fear.

Looking to the standard bulwarks to financial stability, we saw a sharp and wide response of risk aversion to the remarks. The S&P 500 emini futures dropped in the minutes that followed but did not make a serious run on 2,480 support. Yen crosses dropped across the board and the losses proved 'stickier' perhaps due to the heavier skew this pairing represents for deleveraging excessive risk rather than the dubious position it holds as an absolute haven. Bitcoin led its cryptocurrency peers higher, but market participants should keep in mind the distinction between a speculative asset that masquerades as a haven and a genuine haven for capital - the latter of which this market is not. With a different style of trouble at hand, an overlooked brand of haven over the past months has started to regain appeal. Both gold and the Swiss Franc are not go-to protection for those that are fleeing volatility or looking to take advantage of panic. They are havens in the style of avoiding global crises where systemic risks are present and safety backed by governments is called into question. We should keep tabs on how these instruments are performing relative to other market's branded as harbors for capital.

The sudden surprise associated with the escalation of tension surrounding North Korea wasn't the only fundamental motivation to open the week, but it poses the most ominous threat a trigger to otherwise questionable stability in the financial market. Given that it doesn't come with conveniently timed updates nor a clear path to its unfolding, all market participants should stay tuned in. Yet, where this situation doesn't fully explode; we will find other active fundamental developments prodding market movement and potentially trend. Two elections took place over the weekend - the German and New Zealand parliamentary elections - and both left the market feeling uneasy. The Euro gapped lower to start the week despite Chancellor Merkel's party winning the majority. EURUSD dropped back to a head-and-shoulders neckline, but the break yes yet to come. I believe this would be more definitively triggered by risk aversion should it take. New Zealand is unlikely to know its leader until after October 8th when the final vote count is registered, which didn't sit well for the Kiwi as could be seen in pairs like AUDNZD. Moving forward, we should keep watch on the standard bearer for trend determination - monetary policy - as the depth chart of central bank speakers on tap unfolds. We've already had speakers from the ECB, BoJ and Fed speak; and Yellen is on tap for Tuesday. We discuss the competing fundamental developments leading to volatility in today's Trading Video.

To receive John’s analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE.

North Korea, Elections nor Mon Pol Yet to Trigger EURUSD, VIXNorth Korea, Elections nor Mon Pol Yet to Trigger EURUSD, VIXNorth Korea, Elections nor Mon Pol Yet to Trigger EURUSD, VIX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES