We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • U.S. Market Analyst at https://t.co/JsVsSmefgR, Shain Vernier covers - ✔️ Safe haven assets in volatile markets ✔️ Central banks and governments ✔️ How will commodities trade in a recession Only on Trading Global Markets Decoded #podcast. Tune in here: https://t.co/1UmEzEbwiy https://t.co/EIC9YqfTec
  • Anybody else think that casting directors in movies are some of the most underrated people when it comes to giving a film/series credit?
  • No https://t.co/EoBltaP17k
  • Crude #oilprices may face heightened liquidation pressure as the cycle-sensitive #commodity finds itself under the pressure of resilient resistance and a vulnerable, multi-week rising channel. Get your crude #oil market update from @ZabelinDimitri here: https://t.co/cGPX4qcOH1 https://t.co/0U4JMJVFuf
  • The @ecb will likely boost its Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program at Thursday’s meeting of its Governing Council; a move that could give the #Euro a lift. Get your currencies market update from @MartinSEssex here: https://t.co/I4PbmJNG1z https://t.co/hu6Ld1KdDB
  • $GBPUSD doesn’t have the cleanest set of technical indications, but #USD may give indications if it can break its trading range via the $DXY. Get your currencies market update from @PaulRobinsonFX here: https://t.co/PrC9wAaXvU https://t.co/vHYHflwqR3
  • The ongoing contraction in US production may keep #oilprices afloat in June as crude output falls to its lowest level since October 2018. Get your crude #oil market update from @DavidJSong https://t.co/jj1bMLX0DF https://t.co/O9NOqbfHkb
  • watching the #SpaceX launch🍿
  • Major investment bank models have touted USD selling, given the outperformance in US equities relative to its counterparts over the past month. How is this likely to impact the month-end rebalancing? Find out from @JMcQueenFX here:https://t.co/MtNrHmXZpD https://t.co/d00z4019XE
  • The medium-term #gold outlook still seems favorable as the #Fed, #ECB and more keep rates around 0. Immediate event risk ahead includes the #RBA and #BoC interest rate decisions, US jobs data and Brexit. Get your gold market update from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/ABXy78LmUn https://t.co/rCALcGaKOL
Yen Strength Persists As NZD Extends Weakness, Oil Price Fails At $50

Yen Strength Persists As NZD Extends Weakness, Oil Price Fails At $50

2017-08-10 20:30:00
Tyler Yell, CMT, Currency Strategist
Share:

Highlights:

  • USD slips on wholesale inflation measure (PPI) while JPY strength accumulates
  • Commodity FX (notably NZD and CAD) continues to be sold against havens
  • Crude oil turns aggressively lower in late trading despite improving demand
  • Sentiment Highlight Gold price outlook turns positive per sentiment

Momentum is a force that is rarely worth fighting but can be a key advantage for those who choose to follow in its footsteps or on its back. Recently, we have seen a flip of momentum that carried currencies higher like CAD, which has stalled in the upper-teens, and commodity currencies like the Canadian Dollar or New Zealand Dollar. The Canadian Dollar has found that the key driver of its strength, namely the pricing in of increasingly tighter expected monetary policy from the Bank of Canada being priced in is not advancing at the pace that led to such strong gain from May to July. The New Zealand Dollar is reeling from a threat of possible intervention from the RBNZ who changed their language on Thursday morning when they said a lower NZ Dollar would be needed as opposed to prior language noting it to be helpful.

Two forces that have maintained is a weak USD, albeit a less weak USD than we have recently seen and a strong JPY. The strong JPY brought USD/JPY down to the lowest level since June, and NZD/JPY fell 1.5%. The strength in JPY shows that geographic risk (close to threatening North Korea) is being eschewed in favor for repatriation. The weak USD, while nothing new, was today blamed on the first drop in 11-months, which is evidence that the need for additional policy tightening from the Fed is lacking.

Are you looking for trading ideas? Our Q3 forecasts are fresh and ready to light your path. Click here to access for FREE.

Crude Oil failed to respond to two positive fundamental developments on Thursday, turned lower from $50/bbl, and ended the day down nearly 2%. Both positive developments were centered on increasing demand first with OPEC boosting oil-demand outlook while at the same time saying that Saudi Arabia and Iraq, the two largest OPEC producers have agreed to a stronger commitment to further oil cuts. Additionally, calendar spreads for both Brent crude and WTI showed further signs that demand is improving while the glut is reducing as evidenced by the backwardation. Backwardation happens when near-term oil prices are higher than those for delivery in the future, which encourages those with physical barrels to sell now. The opposite of backwardation is Contango, which we’ve strongly rebounded from since earlier in the summer.

JoinTylerin hisDaily Closing Bell webinars at 3 pm ETto discuss tradeable market developments.

FX Closing Bell Top Chart: Crude Oil consolidates above price channel resistance, favoring bullish outlook

Yen Strength Persists As NZD Extends Weakness, Oil Price Fails At $50

Chart Created by Tyler Yell, CMT

Tomorrow's Main Event:USD Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JUL)

IG Client Sentiment Highlight:Gold Price Outlook Turns Positive per sentiment

The sentiment highlight section is designed to help you see how DailyFX utilizes the insights derived from IG Client Sentiment, and how client positioning can lead to trade ideas. If you have any questions on this indicator, you are welcome to reach out to the author of this article with questions at tyell@dailyfx.com.

Yen Strength Persists As NZD Extends Weakness, Oil Price Fails At $50

Spot Gold: Retail trader data shows 62.0% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.63 to 1. The percentage of traders net-long is now its lowest since Mar 31 when it traded near 1248.9. The number of traders net-long is 1.1% lower than yesterday and 11.3% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 25.3% higher than yesterday and 45.2% higher from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Spot Gold prices may continue to fall. Yet traders are less net-long than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current Spot Gold price trend may soon reverse higher despite the fact traders remain net-long.(Emphasis added)

---

Written by Tyler Yell, CMT, Currency Analyst & Trading Instructor for DailyFX.com

To receive Tyler's analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

Contact and discuss markets with Tyler on Twitter: @ForexYell

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.