News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • The ISM manufacturing index plays an important role in forex trading, with ISM data influencing currency prices globally. Find out about the recent history of ISM data, how to track it, and how to trade its release here: https://t.co/MZtBh88nOv https://t.co/hQgZB9T73q
  • The continuity seen across these volatility cycles is a good thing. Historical precedence offer a blueprint for identifying conditions supportive for a vol-event to occur, and how they may unfold. Deepen your knowledge of historical volatility here: https://t.co/vg7w10CKUR https://t.co/9JVh6BsWa2
  • There’s a strong correlation between interest rates and forex trading. Forex is ruled by many variables, but the interest rate of the currency is the fundamental factor that prevails above them all. Learn how interest rates impact currency markets here: https://t.co/J0EPMD2Cfi https://t.co/ZDuee58Abe
  • Many people are attracted to forex trading due to the amount of leverage that brokers provide. Leverage allows traders to gain more exposure in financial markets than what they are required to pay for. Learn about FX leverage here: https://t.co/BdgFmkRxVw https://t.co/niJL2W2yXV
  • GDP (Gross Domestic Product) economic data is deemed highly significant in the forex market. GDP figures are used as an indicator by fundamentalists to gauge the overall health and potential growth of a country. Learn use GDP data to your advantage here: https://t.co/Yl9vM7kO6a https://t.co/0rNbbrd58e
  • Traders utilize varying time frames to speculate in the forex market. The two most common are long- and short-term-time frames which transmits through to trend and trigger charts. Learn more about time-frame analysis here: https://t.co/9S5tXIs3SX https://t.co/zPzJAxBJxt
  • Emotions are often a key driving force behind FOMO. If left unchecked, they can lead traders to neglect trading plans and exceed comfortable levels of risk. Read on and get your emotions in check here: https://t.co/eILWbFgHRE https://t.co/uf6KEYTes5
  • There are three major forex trading sessions which comprise the 24-hour market: the London session, the US session and the Asian session. Learn about the characteristics of each session here: https://t.co/reRmDe1Ksp https://t.co/gRjdVfbg66
  • Implementing a trading checklist is a vital part of the trading process because it helps traders to stay disciplined, stick to the trading plan, and builds confidence. Learn how to stick to the plan, stay disciplined, and use a checklist here: https://t.co/SQUCCYRCIk https://t.co/mLLGqYUygY
  • Use this technical analysis pattern recognition skills test to sharpen your knowledge: https://t.co/Qgz89PTxnu https://t.co/HUYJzEkYiT
GBP/NZD The Cross Roads of BoE and RBNZ, Dollar Faces Wave of Data

GBP/NZD The Cross Roads of BoE and RBNZ, Dollar Faces Wave of Data

John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist

Talking Points:

  • The Bank of England (BoE) rate decision hints at distant hike but the Pound disappointed expecting more
  • A New Zealand tumble follows the RBNZ's persistent, dovish lean with NZD/USD at large support
  • Heavy event risk Friday (Germany and Hong Kong GDP, G7 meeting, US sentiment and CPI) will test the market's resolve

See how retail traders are changing their positions on the Dollar-based majors ahead of the Friday round of US event risk and amid talk of QE change on the DailyFX Sentiment page.

The Pound and New Zealand Dollar crosses were producing considerable heat this past session in response to their respective central bank decisions. Both groups would manage to disappoint the market sufficiently that the two currencies suffered noteworthy losses. That is particularly remarkable given that the forecasts for both were set to neutral forecasts and that is what these groups would generally provide. Of the two meetings, the Bank of England's rate decision was the highest profile event on tap. There was no change to the benchmark rate or path of stimulus expected from the market, and the central bank didn't surprise. However, traders went in fully expecting nuance in the form of the Quarterly Inflation report. Governor Carney took pains to 'warn' that a hike could happen before the end of 2019 and perhaps even before Brexit was complete, but clearly the market was expected more.

From the Sterling, the reaction to the changing sentiment was restrained but clear. GBP/USD was turned off its gradual bullish course and threatens an equally-measured correction. Conviction however now falls on the motivation of the measured development in proper Brexit pricing and the progressive normalizing of US monetary policy. Far more technically appealing and simplifying the fundamental drive is GBP/JPY. The timing of the rate decision happened to align to a prominent double top at 148. What unfolds from here will likely follow risks trends. From the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, the familiar restraint and mild dovish lean wouldn't present any change to the script; but the market did not welcome the news that an explicit carry currency would not see its rate rise for the foreseeable future. The abrumpt drop from the Kiwi drove NZD/USD to key support around 0.6840. Where AUD/NZD and NZD/CAD help to refine the focus to the particulars of the New Zealand currency, GBP/NZD's confict will make interesting work of its recent, volatile range.

Looking ahead to the final trading session of the week, the docket will fill out; but that does not ensure volatility much less trend. The Hong Kong and German 1Q GDP figures are important proxies for two of the world's largest collective economies: China and the Eurozone. For sheer volume, no other currency comes close to matching the charge for the Dollar. The retail sales and consumer inflation (CPI) figures are headline worthy and can even tease rate speculation. Yet, it will be difficult to truly scale up. The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment survey carries far more weight. Conviction can readily turn into economic and financial reality. What may ultimate turn the Greenback to a trend though may very well be the unassuming Fed speak to close out the period. We have seen a concerted effort this week by certainly Fed members to draw attention to the balance sheet. The more traction this interest draws, the more likely we see risk trends take note of the change. We discuss what is developing in the market and where the best opportunities may arise in today's Trading Video.

To receive John’s analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES