News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bullish
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Heads Up:🇦🇺 Ai Group Manufacturing Index (SEP) due at 22:30 GMT (15min) Previous: 49.3 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-09-30
  • Heads Up:🇺🇸 Fed Kaplan Speech due at 22:00 GMT (15min) https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-09-30
  • FDA expands U.S. safety inquiry into AstraZeneca vaccine: Reuters via BBG
  • I don't think there was even a meaningful 'hope' from the market that this was going to get through, so likely no risk retreat as part of an earnest disappointment https://t.co/9plviuDq0Y
  • House delays stimulus bill vote to allow for more time on talks - BBG
  • SA’s official Q2 unemployment rate at 23.3%, down from 30.1% in Q1. Get your $USDZAR market update from @RichardSnowFX here: https://t.co/coIzNSve7u https://t.co/bAGMxZVYYN
  • Forex Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇬🇧GBP: 0.50% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.49% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.47% 🇯🇵JPY: 0.21% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.15% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.19% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/84GPyworwF
  • Commodities Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Gold: -0.58% Oil - US Crude: -0.84% Silver: -3.68% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/xsYcuQg0ug
  • See my #2020election special take on the following question: Will Trade Wars Persist After the US Election? https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/article/special_report/2020/09/30/will-trade-wars-persist-after-the-us-election.html
  • The British Pound price sell-off is now testing a critical medium-term support zone and the immediate focus is on inflection off this threshold. Get your $GBPUSD technical analysis from @MBForex here:https://t.co/c3wV3cgmuL https://t.co/0cuWf9Un3e
GBP/USD Offers Little Brexit Reaction, EUR/USD Scuttles Reversal

GBP/USD Offers Little Brexit Reaction, EUR/USD Scuttles Reversal

2017-03-30 02:46:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist
Share:

Talking Points:

  • UK Prime Minister May delivered her country's official letter of intent to leave the EU Wednesday, the Pound yawned
  • EUR/USD's liftoff after breaking its head-and-shoulder further fell apart technically with a drop back below 1.08
  • Both Dollar and Euro face key fundamental catalysts ahead, but the big events are due Friday

See how retail traders are positioning in the majors using the DailyFX SSI readings on the sentiment page.

We have been anticipating this very moment for nearly nine months now - the official start of the Brexit proceedings. Despite the full expectation by the masses, there was still remarkable speculation that a substantial move would be realized by the Pound. Yet, as would be expected by the realization of something that was fully priced in, the response from the market was tepid. GBP/USD's range reversal from earlier in the week stalled. GBP/JPY's tight range remained undetonated. And, the commodity-based Sterling crosses (GBP/AUD, GBP/CAD, GBP/NZD) all found their gradual, bullish reversals waylaid. This doesn't mean that the Pound will no longer take its cues from this slow-burn event in the future. Now the focus is on the negotiations and rhetoric that will guide it from both sides of the table. A clean and clear move however will be difficult to motivate.

Taking up less headline space, both the S&P 500 ('risk' asset guide) and Dollar further drained hope that critical breaks would find a second wind and full traction for long-awaited trends. A government official (US Transportation Secretary) remarking the the President would introduce the long-awaited $1 trillion infrastructure spending bill later this year did little to recharge the same level of speculative anticipation seen over the past four months. Another round of moderately hawkish Fed speak would fare equally well with the steadying Dollar. On the charts, the immediacy of the equity index's reversal all but disappeared. With EUR/USD, the Dollar's slow rebound moved right back through the former 'neckline' which technical traders would have preferred held as former resistance / new support around 1.0800/25.

EUR/USD moving forward still holds considerable potential. While the technical appeal may have been sapped somewhat for bulls and bears after the technical break, there is event risk ahead that could provide genuine motivation rather than hollow speculative hope. While there is data on both dockets Thursday, it is Friday's event risk that can drive to the core of what has directed the pair's movement these past months and years. The Eurozone CPI and US PCE deflator are inflation reports that amplify or cancel hawkish views behind both the ECB and Fed (the former's ambitions much earlier than the latter). A thorough read of the docket ahead offers a lot of event risk with varying degree of promise under proper conditions. In other markets, the confused risk view seems to dampen hope for bigger moves, yet oil's rebound seems to suit the broader market pace. We discuss key moves and building pressure in the market with today's Trading Video.

To receive John’s analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

GBP/USD Offers Little Brexit Reaction, EUR/USD Scuttles Reversal

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES