DailyFX European Market Wrap: Global Markets Eye NFPs for March Hike Hint
With the self-imposed Fed commentary blackout starting next week until the FOMC meeting on March 15, traders will focus on three major events to help them shape their trading ideas. In the UK there is the Spring Budget on Wednesday, the latest ECB monetary policy meeting on Thursday and the monthly US non-farm payrolls release at the end of the week.
The UK Budget will see Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond put forward his latest fiscal plans. With higher than expected tax receipts, the Chancellor will have a little bit of ‘wiggle room’ to help the NHS or beleaguered small businesses, but he may well stay cautious ahead of the UK government triggering Article 50 at the end of the month.
ECB president Mario Draghi will be encouraged by the recent raft of strong Euro-Zone data but will have also noted the strong inflation print, with Euro-Zone CPI hitting the bank’s 2% target in February, although the core reading remained unchanged at 0.9%. Monetary policy is expected to remain unchanged although investors should carefully read the accompanying statement to look for any change of language.
The US non-farm payrolls will still need to be watched carefully, especially the average wage component, but with the financial markets already pricing in a 80%+ chance of a March interest rate hike, the figures may not be the market mover of old.
And for Bitcoin fans, the SEC is expected to announce whether it will approve a Bitcoin ETF. If approved, buying the techno-currency will become a lot easier, boosting demand. And with one Bitcoin more valuable than an ounce of gold, any setback in the SEC approval could cause a sharp sell-off.
--- Written by Katie Pilbeam, DailyFX
DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.