News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Wall Street
More View more
Real Time News
  • The US Dollar may extend gains against the Thai Baht. But, its price action within USD/SGD, USD/PHP and USD/IDR seem to be favoring more range-bound trading conditions. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:
  • Heads Up:🇳🇿 Business NZ PMI (MAR) due at 22:30 GMT (15min) Previous: 53.4
  • For markets, data really only matters to the extent it drives monetary policy bets Did US retail sales absolutely crush estimates? YES Guess what? Odds of a #Fed rate hike by end of 2022 worsened, now about 54% chance vs 90% early April Dovish #Fed comments doing the real work
  • CDC panel tentatively set to meet late next week on Johnson & Johnson vaccine $JNJ $SPX $NDX $RUT $DJI
  • Fed's Mester: - Does not think the Fed being behind the curve is a primary risk - Second half of the year is going to be strong - Growth will be at 6% or higher overall this year
  • Following their rebound from critical trend support at the end of March, gold prices have now broken through multi-week consolidation resistance. Get your $XUUSD market update from @CVecchioFX here:
  • Silver hit a fresh three-week high above the 25.80 level. The metal had hit its lowest point since December at the end of March, around the 24.00 level. Get your $XAG market update here:
  • Fed's Mester: - We are going to see inflation stabilize - It may take several months for supply chains to get fixed
  • The S&P 500 waded deeper into record territory this week as the country’s largest banks offered an encouraging read on the US economy and corporate earnings outlook. Get your #equities market update from @PeterHanksFX here:
  • Forex Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇳🇿NZD: 0.42% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.35% 🇯🇵JPY: 0.16% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.01% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.11% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.21% View the performance of all markets via
A Return of Liquidity Refreshes S&P 500, Dollar and Oil Bulls

A Return of Liquidity Refreshes S&P 500, Dollar and Oil Bulls

John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist

Talking Points:

  • Despite a lack of tangible data, Trump policy or strong global wind in sentiment; the S&P 500 gapped to a record high
  • Depth of conviction draws skepticism and the first correlation flip between SPX and VIX speaks to practical restraints
  • A Euro tumble and Pound hold defy headlines, Peso rallies on intervention program, oil pressures a break of 55

What are the DailyFX analysts' top trading ideas for 2017 and key lessons to take away from 2016? Sign up for both on the DailyFX Trading Guides page.

The return of liquidity after the long, US holiday weekend charged US equities, the Greenback and oil bulls. For traders, the question is: which of these strong drives has the motivation to extend its run? The speculative drive championed by the S&P 500 is hands down the most impressive on a pure price basis. A gap higher to start the official US trading week supplied an unexpectedly intense pressure to fresh record highs. Their remains a distinct lack of fundamental backing to this move. There was none of the high profile data (US PMIs were actually weak) nor surprise business-friendly policy updates from the President that have supplied much of the motivation of late in Tuesday's session. Meanwhile, the speculative - versus investor - participation finds less and less low-hanging fruit appeal with the VIX and S&P 500 correlation (20 day rolling) notably flipping for the first time in three years.

While there is some noteworthy event risk and the ever lurking chance of a meaningful trade policy update ahead, that is remarkably thin support for already stretched speculative ambition. For global shares, emerging markets and high-yield fixed income - useful 'risk' assets in their own right - the day's performance was far less remarkable. The 'animal spirits' can take the wheel, but its steering often leads to trouble. In contrast, the US Dollar's rebound doesn't strike nearly the same speculative statement; but its motivation is just as dubious. The Fed speak this past session taps a theme that was explicitly ignored last week when far more prominent event risk was available. That also sets low expectations for the upcoming FOMC minutes. For oil, the jawboning effort was once again employed; but this time it seemed to catch traction. A surge to 55 was latter driven back. A true break (not necessarily bullish) seems inevitable but follow through certainly is not.

For the docket over the coming session, the high profile event risk is limited and the underlying themes are either stretched or cold. These are not conditions where the market seems primed to change its pace and bearings. Traders in shares, Greenback and crude should monitor markets with a weary eye. Meanwhile, the Euro and Pound contradictions present pressure without release. The former's slide despite encouraging PMI figures may signal a shift in focus to Greece and Euro-area stability, but that is unlikely. Despite remarks by Jean-Claude Juncker about the EU's tough negotiation approach to the UK's separation and the House of Lords passing its second reading without a vote, the Sterling was little moved. We discuss all of this and more in today's Trading Video.

To receive John’s analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

A Return of Liquidity Refreshes S&P 500, Dollar and Oil Bulls

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.