News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • Retail traders appear to be reducing long exposure in the Euro after recent gains. This hints that EUR/USD and EUR/JPY may rise in the near term, but could this trend last down the road? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/Y1d4DXeKEE https://t.co/sD5elbDCWa
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 92.99%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 75.56%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/Xopq2F0ZEs
  • (Crypto Tech Special) Bitcoin (BTC), Litecoin (LTC), Ethereum (ETH) Analysis: Is Momentum Fading? #Bitcoin #BTC #Litecoin #LTC #Ethereum #ETH https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/article/special_report/2021/04/15/Bitcoin-BTC-Litecoin-LTC-Ethereum-ETH-Analysis-Is-Momentum-Fading.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Dubrovsky&utm_campaign=twr https://t.co/RkduJG4S4C
  • The Dollar extended its slide this past session as Fed's Powell tried to soften the 'eventual taper' message. Ahead, we have US retail sales, more quarterly earnings (BLK, TSM, DAL), Turkish CB rate decision and China 1Q GDP. Targeted volatility ahead? https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2021/04/15/Dollar-Tumble-Continues-as-Powell-Deflects-Taper-Retail-Sales-Earnings-and-Crypto-Ahead.html https://t.co/NP6sWFeB7s
  • Forex Update: As of 04:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇯🇵JPY: 0.06% 🇳🇿NZD: 0.01% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.02% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.05% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.09% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.18% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/OKyitguR1H
  • Indices Update: As of 04:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Wall Street: 0.13% FTSE 100: 0.13% US 500: 0.07% Germany 30: -0.08% France 40: -0.13% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/hKFGqiob3c
  • Heads Up:🇮🇩 Balance of Trade (MAR) due at 04:00 GMT (15min) Expected: $1.64B Previous: $2.01B https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-04-15
  • The USD was flat against SGD, THB, IDR and PHP as falling Treasury yields offset potential gains from Emerging Market Stock declines. Ahead, all eyes are on Chinese GDP, US CPI, Powell and the MAS. Get your $USD market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/qwileJ3OUX https://t.co/E1CgQSp4xH
  • BOK's Lee: - Yields under close watch - Will be a "considerable time" before digital currency issuance - Growth potential may be much lower than it was before Covid - BBG
  • Commodities Update: As of 02:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Gold: -0.02% Silver: -0.10% Oil - US Crude: -0.33% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/qKzhq3VVN3
S&P 500 Rally Hits Peak 3-Year Tempo, USD Falters Despite Rate Outlook

S&P 500 Rally Hits Peak 3-Year Tempo, USD Falters Despite Rate Outlook

John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist

Talking Points:

  • Expectations of a March 15 FOMC rate hike charge to 44 percent after CPI gives stronger rate charge than Yellen
  • Despite the hawkish swell, the Dollar slips and the S&P 500 extends its rally to 7 days - the longest run in 3 years
  • While trade policy remains a lingering market threat, active drive changes tack with a focus on the G-20 meeting

See how retail traders are positioning in the S&P 500 CFD and Dollar-based majors using the DailyFX SSI readings on the sentiment page.

Through January, the rolling three-month correlation between the US Dollar and S&P 500 peaked at a remarkable 0.95. That means the benchmark currency and equity index were moving in virtual lockstep through that period. Given the view of the former as an ultimate safe haven and the latter as a pilot for risk trends, such conformity is striking. Complacency on speculative risks and the forecast for competitive yield growth in the US helped to feed that atypical relationship. Yet, the unusual relationship may be normalizing - but not for the reason that may would expect. Given the build up in risk trends, it wouldn't be a stretch to assume that the risk reach would be battered first while the Dollar held out a little longer. The opposite seems to be unfolding.

With Wednesday's close, US equity indexes hit records across the spectrum; while the S&P 500 specifically notched a seventh consecutive advance - the longest stretch of daily gains in three years. The enthusiasm was once again not evenly distributed however across borders and asset classes. Global equities were a mixed bag - perhaps there is still some catchup to be had - and assets further out the risk curve were a mixed bag. Perhaps the best performance was from emerging markets with the EM ETF finally making a strong push past resistance while the Brazilian Real and South African Rand made progress after cracking heavy technical levels. For the Dollar, a break from its impressive recent run came despite a meaningful rise in Fed rate expectations. Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen's second day of testimony didn't give the market much to work with, but the January CPI figures offered real traction for rate speculation. From a 25 percent probability just a few days before, the market now projects a 44 percent chance of a March 15 hike from the FOMC. That doesn't seem enough to ensure the USD's rise though.

In the upcoming session, the divergence between the Dollar and equities will continue to encompass one of the more remarkable discrepancies in global fundamental themes. The inconsistency in performance for risk assets will hang over the market either dragging other assets along the same route that US stocks have blazed or find the outperformers conform. The focus for event risk will take a marked shift over the next 48 hours. Rather than plot out the Fed's timetable and assessment for economic health, the international communities concerns will be brought to the forefront at the G-20's gathering of finance ministers. Given the state of global trade and the fears it has produced, it is reasonable to expect this will be an important talking point. Otherwise, event risk will thin out to leave overriding themes in charge of our bearings. We discuss what has developed and what lies ahead for traders in today's Trading Video.

S&P 500 Rally Hits Peak 3-Year Tempo, USD Falters Despite Rate OutlookS&P 500 Rally Hits Peak 3-Year Tempo, USD Falters Despite Rate Outlook

To receive John’s analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES