News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
More View more
Real Time News
  • Technical analysis of charts aims to identify patterns and market trends by utilizing differing forms of technical chart types and other chart functions. Learn about the top three technical analysis tools here: https://t.co/KDjIjLdTSk https://t.co/HNqHcbL6vk
  • The US Dollar continues to push higher against ASEAN currencies after the FOMC rate decision. This leaves the USD/SGD, USD/THB, USD/PHP and USD/IDR outlook mostly tilted higher. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/zn56iTFBxM https://t.co/FbepD4RaFg
  • The US Dollar seems to be back on the offensive against its major counterparts, pressuring EUR/USD and NZD/USD lower as USD/JPY consolidates. USD/CHF surges past key resistance. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/MrLGSp7FYa https://t.co/XS0176LyOg
  • The Japanese Yen remains in focus with strength potential on risk aversion themes to go along with weakness on themes around higher rates. Get your weekly $JPY technical forecast from @JStanleyFX here: https://t.co/l4UICqJzJy https://t.co/dQ2pS0E4fp
  • Google finance-related search interest in 'Evergrande' has almost overtaken 'Covid'. 'Taper' doesn't even register on the scale https://t.co/P6H9sHFVIB
  • Gold prices gain as potential systemic risks out of China's Evergrande Group roil broader markets. Meanwhile, iron ore is ticking higher after a big drop on Monday as China steps up steelmaking curbs. Get your market update from @FxWestwater here:https://t.co/l4kAWDJ2wm https://t.co/b9m5ADIqqb
  • Gold remains higher despite positive Evergrande news out of China. Meanwhile, copper bulls are pushing prices upward as the potential for a housing crisis in China ebbs. Get your market update from @FxWestwater here:https://t.co/TK3MNntBdA https://t.co/14UKjR4w6M
  • GBP/USD has flattened overnight after its strongest rally in a month on Thursday. The British currency has been under pressure recently as an energy crisis has caused a number of gas providers to go bankrupt. Get your market update from @HathornSabin here:https://t.co/3D8s2eIVWv https://t.co/JDGNwKYyOn
  • Japanese candlesticks are a popular charting technique used by many traders, and the shooting star candle is no exception. Learn about the shooting star candlestick and how to trade it here: https://t.co/mfwJ0sIauS https://t.co/JIT5it2HAt
  • Gold could suffer further near-term losses due to rising U.S. Treasury yields and a weak technical picture for price action. Get your weekly gold forecast from @DColmanFX here: https://t.co/g9QvH3L4It https://t.co/Vz98E0Bl9U
USD/JPY Breaks Another Floor but its Motivation is Unstable

USD/JPY Breaks Another Floor but its Motivation is Unstable

John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist

Talking Points:

Monetary policy will again be a headline theme this week with RBA and RBNZ, but it will continue to lack trend traction

• Risk trends remain disconnected but still pointing north as risk premium and dip opportunities drying up

USD/JPY and Yen cross slide drawing from the unsteady source of currency manipulation accusations

What are the DailyFX analysts' top trading ideas for 2017 and key lessons to take away from 2016? Sign up for both on the DailyFX Trading Guides page.

Though there was another round of healthy but concentrated volatility, it seems I didn't miss much in the second half of last week despite the high profile event risk. Heading into this new trading period, there is considerably fewer high-profile calendar events on tap; but that may work to focus markets on what can drive speculation to a lasting run and return the lost conviction behind the now-tentative trends. Monetary policy continues to lose its authority while growing trade disputes and manipulation claims position clear losers and winners.

Risk trends have surprisingly held up in this uncertain and accusatory environment. While US equity benchmarks like the S&P 500 are among the very few pushing record highs, global shares are advancing to multi-month and multi-year highs of their own. The riskier corners of the market continue to promote a leveraged exposure - either in size or theme. Appetite for markets with a theoretically unlimited payoff (like equities) continue to recede despite the bouyancy. There has been an almost constant string of weekly net capital outflows from US equity ETFs through the past 9 months while the run of small movement days has extended far beyond what most would have thought possible. Meanwhile, appetite for assets with extremely capped returns but similiarly scaled risks (short VIX trades) continues to boom.

This dichotomy of the big picture fundamental themes has drawn a spotlight on the unusual performance of USD/JPY and the other Yen crosses. Despite risk trends maintaining their uneasy climb, this benchmark pair and its peers have slipped through another round of support. Fresh motivation now seems to be coming through the shifting attention of US President Donald Trump to call out perceptions of Japan's efforts to afford unfair trade advantages. Given the G7's statement back in 2013 seemingly targeting Japan's competitive devaluation, there seems to be more traction to be found here than with the accusation leveled at Germany and Mexico recently. Though a prevailing fundamental theme, can these trade disputes sustain viable trades? What can we expect from the RBA and RBNZ rate decisions? Is Brexit still a capable Pound driver? We discuss these questions and more in today's Trading Video.

To receive John’s analysis directly via email, pleaseSIGN UP HERE

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES