0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • #Gold saw its worst performance the past 5 days in 5 months as longer-dated government bond yields in developed countries rose Could this be the beginning of a turning point in #XAUUSD? https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/forecast/weekly/chf/2020/08/15/Gold-Price-Outlook-Will-XAUUSD-Brush-off-Worst-Week-in-5-Months.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Dubrovsky&utm_campaign=twr https://t.co/x2Indk3b7P
  • Did you know a Doji candlestick signals market indecision and the potential for a change in direction. What are the top five types of Doji candlesticks? Find out: https://t.co/td5WA4hCZC https://t.co/PT09ZsIOCa
  • The US #Dollar may rise, buoyed by haven demand as fiscal stimulus talks stagnate and swelling tensions between Washington and Beijing sink trade talks. Get your #currencies update from @DanielGMoss here: https://t.co/Wcw9PDUr67 https://t.co/gnYZYl6aLV
  • Upside in #CrudeOil struggling ahead of #OPEC meeting. Cartel likely to maintain wait and see approach. Get your #commodities update from @JMcQueenFX here: https://t.co/gNHHKoTUzm https://t.co/eF40DRIBJ5
  • #Gold had some big moves last week, and while vol is expected to die down a bit, it will be important to see if gold can hold its ground in the coming days/weeks. Get your #metals update from @PaulRobinsonFX here: https://t.co/N8a84hRnHN https://t.co/3fjodPHTDm
  • The S&P 500's refusal to hit a record and Dollar's anchor to range this past week is sign of summer liquidity conditions, but the quiet is not insurmountable. 'S&P 500 Record and Dollar Break Look to Stimulus and Trade to Override Seasonality' https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2020/08/15/SP-500-Record-and-Dollar-Break-Look-to-Stimulus-and-Trade-to-Override-Seasonality-.html https://t.co/mbvPkdQfYl
  • Get your snapshot update of the of relative currency strength and exchange status from around the globe here: https://t.co/DmhBkcMZBK https://t.co/kFk6ccU3Sk
  • The Federal Reserve System (the Fed) was founded in 1913 by the United States Congress. The Fed’s actions and policies have a major impact on currency value, affecting many trades involving the US Dollar. Learn more about the Fed here: https://t.co/ADSC4sIHrP https://t.co/aXSB0bG3y0
  • Take a closer look visually at the most influential global importers and exporters here: https://t.co/1G7CRsegRX https://t.co/i342ipPuvW
  • Why financial market traders must monitor both monetary and fiscal policy? Find out from @MartinSEssex here:https://t.co/Fkzk88Y5gm https://t.co/tHp0Nb3Tr5
Dollar Slides as Trade Threats Deepen, FOMC and BoE Decisions Ahead

Dollar Slides as Trade Threats Deepen, FOMC and BoE Decisions Ahead

2017-02-01 05:02:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist
Share:

Talking Points:

  • The DXY Dollar Index slipped below support ahead of the FOMC, but this lacks for the full conviction of a break
  • Accusations by US President's top trade advisor of Germany devaluing Euro furthers global trade fallout
  • FOMC and NFPs ahead key event risk, but top event risk stands as a means to an end - an eventual sentiment trend

See the DailyFX Analysts' 1Q forecasts for the Dollar, Euro, Pound, Equities and Gold on the DailyFX Trading Guides page.

The Dollar extended its dive this past session - notably before the FOMC and January NFPs hit. Pressuring support and extending a trend in a market otherwise anchored by complacency is no small feat. This drive would not come through the traditional route. The Conference Board's US consumer sentiment survey slipped, but it does so from a remarkably high level. The catch-all explanation of Trump policy whiplash doesn't measure up between the most recent executive actions and the charge in speculation found via economic expectations. That said, President Trump's top trade adviser, Peter Navarro, hit the market where it has proven most vulnerable: deteriorating trade relations. His suggestion that Germany was devaluing the Euro for its own advantage via exports and that the country was the primary hurdle to a trade relationship with the EU creates palpable tension between the two most liquid currencies, represents an implicit threat of policies aimed at devaluing the Dollar and further threatens to destabilize the already fraying relations in the EU and Eurozone.

Projecting the next move for the US Dollar, the focus will shift back to scheduled event risk. The FOMC rate decision Wednesday is a media favorite. However, practical expectations of significant policy change are low. Having hiked at the last meeting in December, it would be a dramatic acceleration of pace from 12 months between hikes to subsequent meetings. Such a pace would also contradict the FOMC's own vow to move at a gradual pace. In the range of scenarios, a rate hike is a possibility, but the positive implications for the Dollar's yield advantage would quickly come under pressure from a stumbling risk backdrop fully faltering with the reality of a rollback in the speculative safety net. If the Fed follows the more restrained route of holding policy, the focus will turn to the policy statement which will be far more nuanced. Given the further release of NFPs just two days later, it would struggle to properly motivate.

Whether the focus is the FOMC or rapid economic and trade policy changes by the new President, these are catalysts to a deeper trend: sentiment. Whatever the motivator, the resultant speculative shift by the masses will divert the most capital and carry the prevailing trends. And, on that front, there is practical asymmetry when it comes to the views of risk appetite and risk aversion. As for other high profile event risk on the docket ahead, the Bank of England rate decision stands out amid sentiment surveys and PMIs. The comprehensive event will offer practical speculative traction, but true momentum will depend upon its ability to tap the Brexit thread. We discuss the busy three days ahead in today's Trading Video.

To receive John’s analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.