News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
More View more
Real Time News
  • US Dollar Index treading water above the 92 handle ahead of Friday's jobs report $DXY $USD https://t.co/PKfMKpJBwu
  • Indices Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: France 40: 0.22% Germany 30: 0.20% FTSE 100: 0.11% US 500: 0.01% Wall Street: -0.00% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/WiPPINSivr
  • Stocks’ earnings data was strong; rocky 3Q’21 may be underway US economic data begins to sour, but the delta variant gives the Fed cover. Get your $USD market update from @CVecchioFX here:https://t.co/sq7BsfyNe9 https://t.co/Ado2dPBJLd
  • #Gold Price Outlook: Gold August Battle Lines Drawn- $XAUUSD Levels - https://t.co/xsdZiL8uyy https://t.co/KnGbp5nXyI
  • Commodities Update: As of 18:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 0.56% Oil - US Crude: -0.11% Gold: -0.19% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/ZNNdqAFGoX
  • US Senator Schumer: Senate will finish infrastructure and budget bills before August recess $USD $DXY
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 92.95%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 81.86%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/9gsaW4yXD7
  • Fed's Bowman: - It may take time for some people to return to work - The record number of job opportunities is a good sign
  • Fed's Bowman: - There is still work to be done to get the US economy back on track - Employment remains significantly below where it was
  • USD/CAD bounced off support, but looks only corrective in nature. Short-term charts suggest we will soon see price turn down. Get your $USDCAD market update from @PaulRobinsonFX here:https://t.co/zdfLSKm6LF https://t.co/PF5ZXDBxI0
Dollar Awaits US GDP and Next Trump Volley, Volatility Simmers

Dollar Awaits US GDP and Next Trump Volley, Volatility Simmers

John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist

Talking Points:

• UK GDP offered less motivation to the Pound than the government's Brexit bill for Parliament to digest

• President Trump charges the anti-trade concerns once again with suggestions of a 20% tax on Mexican imports

• Top event risk for Friday includes the US 4Q GDP release and a trade meeting between UK PM May and President Trump

See the DailyFX Analysts' 1Q forecasts for the Dollar, Euro, Pound, Equities and Gold on the DailyFX Trading Guides page.

The hierarchy of market drivers has clearly been upended. This past session the Pound found more motivation through Brexit speculation than key data. Scheduled well in advance, the 4Q UK GDP release carried heavy the potential to meaningfully alter the economy's course and alter the backdrop for the impending negotiations with the European Union. Instead, a slightly better-than-expected outcome from the growth figures offered little reason for investors to reassess their course. Meanwhile, following the Constitutional Court's ruling for Parliamentary say on Brexit, the government issued a bill for the group to debate next week. The prevailing theme is clear, but its progress is not as regimented as many traders would like.

Meanwhile, the growing tension between the US and its trade partners flared up once again Thursday. China was given some respite while Mexico once again came into the focus. Following President Trump's signing of the executive order on the border wall with its neighbor to the south, the strained relationship seemed to snap with a cancelled diplomatic visit and the threat of a 20 percent tariff on all Mexican imports into the US. Despite these escalations, USD/MXN volatility was surprisingly restrained. A walk back by the press secretary on it translating into policy showed how erratic policy would be as a market theme. There is plenty more fuel for this global fire to burn in the weeks and months ahead.

Top event risk through the final sesison of the trading week comes in both data and event form. The key listing is the US 4 GDP reading. This report will struggle for impact due to the shifting concentration of market focus. A reading that is close to forecast will certainly lack for impact if the UK data is any indication. However, a significant surprise may shake loose complacency. Risk trends remains the ticking bomb however. The S&P 500's rally has stalled just as quickly as it developed. In turn, volatility measured by the VIX is still extremely low - with short-term measures and volatility-of-volatility at even more extraordinary levels. If risk trends or further political swing doesn't rouse the market before the weekend, the listings beyond the liquidity break will stage another sizable threat. We look at what's ahead in today's Trading Video.

To receive John’s analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES