News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Wall Street
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • Continuation patterns can present favorable entry levels to trade in the direction of the prevailing trend. Use continuation patterns in your technical analysis here: https://t.co/TUVnO3bO1P https://t.co/vBLkMKjf4x
  • Cyclical and non-cyclical stocks can help diversify a trader’s equity portfolio. Get your guide to understanding these stocks here: https://t.co/h7BKTd2J8N https://t.co/n8vpmuLdTW
  • Key levels in forex tend to draw attention to traders in the market. These are psychological prices which tie into the human psyche and way of thinking. Learn about psychological levels here: https://t.co/8A1QhwMVKo https://t.co/CZePv1JEFh
  • The US dollar is unloved, oversold and at lows last seen over 30-months ago. At the moment there seems to be very little reason to buy the greenback. Get your $USD market update from @nickcawley1 here:https://t.co/VY3SLs35cp https://t.co/AVpY2GkGUG
  • The Spinning Top candlestick pattern forms part of the vast Japanese candlestick repertoire with its own distinct features. Gain a better understanding of the spinning top candlestick here: https://t.co/DWm7cBMUg9 https://t.co/IUii5478Jf
  • The Swiss Franc may continue higher against the US Dollar as technical pressure favors USD/CHF bears. .Get your market update from @FxWestwater here:https://t.co/yqJbbhAWiu https://t.co/TCBkQdrMAR
  • RT @jposhaughnessy: BOOM! Mystery solved. https://t.co/njXlgejE0j
  • Gold and silver prices have come under significant pressure recently. However, this correction lower could prove short-lived as price analysis hints at a reversal higher. Get your $XAUUSD market update from @DanielGMoss here:https://t.co/K1qL0fsGwy https://t.co/pH0HQmNX14
  • The dispute between the Federal Reserve and the Treasury Department concerned economists and government officials last week. Traders, however, appeared unfazed as U.S. equity markets proceeded to higher ground. Get your market update from @FxWestwater here:https://t.co/DKK7WWHKlu https://t.co/qxKvC8FAVd
  • The British Pound is eyeing a push to fresh yearly highs against the US Dollar. However, various technical setups suggest GBP could lose ground to JPY, EUR and NZD in the near term. Get your $GBP market update from @DanielGMoss here:https://t.co/NSUnZnPb4Q https://t.co/RuBAAWS37w
Volatility, China GDP, ECB to Test Dollar and Equity Strength

Volatility, China GDP, ECB to Test Dollar and Equity Strength

2017-01-14 03:23:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist
Share:

Talking Points:

  • Official measures of volatility remain suspiciously deflated as key themes heat up and FX price swings increase
  • Extreme speculative futures exposure in the Russell 2000, US yields, VIX, Yen and Oil generate asymmetry
  • Top event risk ahead includes: the UK PM talking Brexit priorities, ECB decision, China GDP, US Presidential inauguration

What are the DailyFX analysts' top trading ideas for 2017 and key lessons to take away from 2016? Sign up for both on the DailyFX Trading Guides page.

We are heading into the third week of the new trading year, and cracks are starting to appear in the market's veneer of serene optimism. Headlines for the bullish crowd are still championed by the 'will they or won't they' speculation surrounding the Dow Jones Industrial Average's intentions for 20,000. Just breaking the round number seems to be the only objective in mind, not what kind of motivation would follow its breech. That is not encouraging. Meanwhile, a stalled advance for risk-sensitive assets and the slow retreat of the Dollar takes a different score than financial media's headlines. FX volatility often precedes greater activity in other asset classes. And that bodes poorly for paragons of complacency like the global equities and other assets with the Dollar, Yen crosses and emerging market currencies picking up steam.

Whether sentiment improves or deteriorates, accelerates or decelerates matters little without the context of speculative assumption and exposure. Coming out of the holiday period at the turn of the year, we find exposure at extremes on a number of fronts. Net speculative futures positioning for both the Russell 2000 and 10-year Treasury note - an obvious trader favorite and distorted one respectively - are standing just off extraordinarily inflated records. In Yen futures, the rapid swing to a net short (long crosses) view is now starting to turn along with USD/JPY. Even the rank behind oil finds itself bloated just below a record long holding despite the commodity 50 percent lower than where it last stood when it reached the extreme previously. Arguably the most disconcerting exposure rests with VIX which is a thematic leverage on complacency. Despite the index holding at its natural low, futures traders are holding near record level short exposure.

Nothing breaks an ill-fated calm quiet like high profile event risk that triggers deeply seated themes. As it happens, we have quiet a lot of that in the week ahead. Taking the event risk chronologically, Brexit watchers will have a tangible updated from Prime Minister Theresa May scheduled to discuss the government's priorities with negotiating the UK's position after Article 50 is invoked. Cutting through events like the US CPI, Aussie jobs and BoC policy meeting; the ECB's policy decision Thursday will offer anchor for skepticism over the world's most overdrawn stimulus effort. Chinese 4Q GDP is parhaps the most recognizable single event but the US Presidential inauguration should also remind us of the expectations built into US growth and policy moving forward. We talk about all of this in this weekend's Trading Video.

To receive John’s analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES