News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Bullish
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • 🇯🇵 Unemployment Rate (JAN) Actual: 2.9% Expected: 3% Previous: 2.9% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-03-01
  • The US Dollar is trying to break higher versus ASEAN currencies. The Singapore Dollar, Philippine Peso, Thai Baht and Indonesian Rupiah are under pressure. Will follow-through last? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/JOWG9q01q0 https://t.co/onzZoGNQf6
  • Heads Up:🇯🇵 Unemployment Rate (JAN) due at 23:30 GMT (15min) Expected: 3% Previous: 2.9% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-03-01
  • Retail CFD traders (via IG) have flipped net long on the $SPX for the first time since the Pandemic low almost a year ago: https://t.co/yWRLZk5mym
  • ...also for those without kids or are not inherently young at heart, March 2nd is Dr. Seuss's birthday.
  • The price of gold struggles to retain the rebound from the start of the week as longer-dated US Treasury yields hold above pre-pandemic levels. Get your $XAUSD market update from @DavidJSong here:https://t.co/zE7NafvfTq https://t.co/4BxMT0iyi1
  • Uh oh. Another financial product/meme pivot. I think Elon is just a BTD kind of guy who is in tune with the social trading trends and wants to bring the retail crowd along with him. Would fit the essence of Tesla and Space X https://t.co/EP9zj1rXzU
  • Canadian #Dollar Forecast: $USDCAD Bears Fail at Support- March Levels - https://t.co/XkyFns8odx https://t.co/8Q4Tu0viz0
  • I feel the LaserEyes trend is a more effective social spread because of the visual impact. Kind of disappointed the community hasn't gotten a more tangible visual cue for BTD / BTFD. Or maybe there is one and I'm just behind the trend....which happens a lot recently
  • Forex Update: As of 21:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇦🇺AUD: 0.87% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.78% 🇳🇿NZD: 0.45% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.19% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.20% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.70% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/U3yK9hfDka
For the First Week of 2017, A Return of Liquidity and NFPs

For the First Week of 2017, A Return of Liquidity and NFPs

John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist

Talking Points:

• A fading liquidity was the most prominent feature of 2016's close, its return will be critical to trade in 2017's open

• We will start off the New Year with an extended Dollar and S&P 500 with a need to reestablish commitment

Data will fill out quickly in the opening week of January, but NFP's is the most distinguished listing

See what live coverage is scheduled to cover key event risk for the FX and capital markets on the DailyFX Webinar Calendar.

Liquidity was the name of the game to close out 2016 and it will be the prime mover to open 2017. Thin trading conditions lead to a very erratic backdrop and require traders to adapt. That was apparently through the past week with a moderation of prevailings moves like risk appetite (manifest in a S&P 500 pullback) and Fed rate forecasts (with the Dollar easing from 14 year highs). It can also lead to more dramatic moves like the surge in EUR/USD which found a sizable order in an otherwise ill-equiped market to absorb the demand. How long the shallow market conditions persist into the New Year will be important to assess as trading approach should be tailored to what we are dealing with. For certain, Monday will carry forward the quiet as an official market holiday for the majority of the financial system. But after that, it's off to the races.

When participation is topped off, we want to see where this fuel for conviction aligns. Are we going to pick up on the mature moves behind speculative positioning and Fed forecasting, or will skepticism and opportunism cut these complacent moves down? There is certainly a skew in terms of how much fast progress can be made with versus against the prevailing trends, and it will be important to incorporate that factor in with the general 'probabilities' of direction. Heading into the New Year, I believe that it is very unlikely that we make it another 12 months of complacency and a reach for yield amid growing threats and tepid growth. Logically, it is unlikely that we will even make it to mid-year before some significant rebalancing is found. Yet, it is important to trade was is unfolding rather than what we want to happen.

For scheduled event risk through the opening week, the docket fills out rather quickly after the holiday lull. There are a range of PMIs (economic activity proxies) as well as sentiment indicators from China to Europe to the UK to the US. That is an important economic starting block, but history suggests the traders have been somewhat fundamental-blind to the influence of this data. Without doubt, the guest of honor for the opening week is the US labor data for December. The change in payrolls (NFPs) is a risk favorite and will play that role nicely. For the more systemic implications for rate expectations, the underlying average hourly earnings will gauge traction through inflation and true labor health. With pairs like EUR/USD and USD/JPY dancing around key levels and primed for technical breaks, this looks like an explosive mix for the start of the New Year. We look at the opening foray into 2017 in today's Trading Video.

To receive John’s analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES