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Dollar Rally Reaches Critical Make or Break Level Before Yellen, CPI

Dollar Rally Reaches Critical Make or Break Level Before Yellen, CPI

2016-11-17 05:58:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist
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Talking Points:

• The DXY Dollar Index has extended its advance to eight straight days - the longest run in 3 years

• A Dow Composite cuts its bull run to seven consecutive days, but not before hitting a record high

• Top event risk ahead is focused on the Dollar with Yellen testimony pairing with CPI for rate speculation

See what live coverage is scheduled to cover key event risk for the FX and capital markets on the DailyFX Webinar Calendar

The pressure continues to build for the US Dollar. On the one hand, the currency continues to run with gusto on an eight-straight day climb that marks the most durable climb since July 2013. Yet, despite the advance, we have yet to clear psychological hurdles. Technically, the the upper bound on a two-year range stands at 100.50. Fundamentally, a charge on Fed rate forecasts has spent much of the viable fuel on the way up to a 94 percent probability of a December 14th rate hike. This past session's Fed speak (hawkish) and upstream producer inflation data (dovish) provided a mixed picture that was overlooked in favor of what lies ahead.

In the coming US session, we face the kind of event risk that can actually scale the final percentage points to certainty of a hike next month. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is the market's favorite inflation measure, and it has shown a core trend that has overtaken the target with an impatient speculative rank looking for headline items to follow. Meanwhile, Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen is set to testify before the Joint Economic Committee for the first grilling since the surprise US Presidential election outcome. It should also be noted that the group's most dovish member - Vice Chair Lael Brainard - is also set to speak. The potential scenarios on this rate forecast theme are seriously skewed, and we consider that for trading potential on the Dollar and its pairs.

For the other persistent theme - risk trends - the Dow Composite ended its impressive seven day run. That calls to a close the most steadfast advance in two years, but not before reaching a record high. The problem for those using this index as a barometer for the broader market though is the lack of conviction across the board. Other 'risk' assets like emerging market assets, high yield fixed income and front-run Treasuries stalled. USD/JPY and the Yen crosses meanwhile actually slipped. A full tilt sentiment implosion would make this remarkably appealing, but that has yet to take root. While US rate forecasts and the speculative scale are the two most potent drivers moving forward; we also look at scheduled event risk, Brexit tides and more in today's Trading Video.

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