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Pound Rises as BoE Head Stays for Brexit; Market Weighs BoJ, RBA, Fed

Pound Rises as BoE Head Stays for Brexit; Market Weighs BoJ, RBA, Fed

John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist

Talking Points:

  • The end of October and start of November usually brings cooling markets, but that may change
  • RBA and BoJ rate decisions offer the first half of four rate decisions this week
  • News that BoE Governor Carney shifts the Brexit-driven GBP, risk trends remain a key wind

See the DailyFX Analysts' 4Q forecasts for the Dollar, Euro, Pound, Equities and Gold in the DailyFX Trading Guides page.

The fundamental headlines have started early this week, but the market is saving itself for something more decisive and perhaps all-consuming. Scheduled event risk through Monday's session carried economic heft but was limited for price engagement with grander uncertainties in the near future. Eurozone 3Q GDP, the Fed's favored inflation indicator (PCE), and UK business sentiment offered adjustment to currency and asset advantage versus disadvantage. Yet, the modest surprises in this data would not draw enough attention away from the countdown to events like the FOMC and BoE rate decisions or Friday's US NFPs.

Diverting the flow on some of the underlying themes remains the best source of potential movement in currency conditions. The Pound had a distinct response - a robust bounce - on news that Bank of England Governor Mark Carney plans to stay at the helm of UK monetary policy through the conclusion of the two-year Brexit odyssey. With the Sterling stumbling with every additional fear of negotiation trouble in the EU separation, this offers a much-needed sense of relief. However, the extent of this encouraging development will only stretch so far with the BoE's rate decision and Quarterly Inflation due later this week.

Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and Bank of Japan (BoJ) have deliberated on their policy approaches through Tuesday's morning session. Neither would alter their course - though the latter is far more aggressive in its accommodation than the former. Speculation of further easing from the RBA has eased while the BoJ has shifted its stimulus to a market-derived course. These may not look like normalization or tightening on traditional courses, but they come to similar effects. Will the market read the similarities? Underlying risk trends remain one of the most potent yet untapped sources in the system. While we are drawn to bright headlines, it is important to keep charts for benchmarks like the S&P 500 close at hand. We see how the market is moving through its first wave of important event risk this week in today's Trading video.

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