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Risk Shudders, Banxico Jolts Peso, Dollar Still Unfazed by Fed Chatter

Risk Shudders, Banxico Jolts Peso, Dollar Still Unfazed by Fed Chatter

2016-09-30 05:25:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist
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Talking Points:

  • Ranges held their boundaries from the quiet DXY to fundamentally motivated US Oil
  • The Bank of Mexico announced a 50 bps rate hike and stated its concern that the US elections pose a risk to Mexico
  • Deutsche Bank's growing problems are starting to hit counterparty risk snags

See what live coverage is scheduled to cover key event risk for the FX and capital markets on the DailyFX Webinar Calendar.

Today marks the end of the trading week and month. Historically, September represents one of the calendar year's highest average months for volatility (VIX) levels and the worst month for risk trends' (S&P 500). That is clearly not the case in 2016. Systemic curbs on sentiment including extreme monetary policy, complacency and extremely low yield have proven more concrete than seasonal tides capable of overcoming. With general market conditions shaping range and congestion, preference for trade type is strong.

For event risk this past session, the data and speeches generated volatility but lacked the charge necessary to force breakouts much less trends. Another long list of Fed speakers weighed in on monetary policy and the outlook for the economy in different proportions, but rate forecasts are little changed from their extraordinarily low levels following the September hold. Kuroda commentary and European sentiment surveys offered little more to the failing confidence in the regions' respective monetary policy efforts. Off docket, news of deepening Deutsche Bank problems gave global investors reason for concern; but apparently not enough to spur a wide deleveraging.

Heading into the final session of the week, the Fed's favorite inflation statistics (the PCE statistics) are top listing. Yet, expectations should be held in check given the lack of motivation in rate speculation. Broader themes of financial stability concerns, the perspective of oil supply rebalance and the aftermath of the Bank of Mexico's rate hike (and stated view that global risks of volatility were growing) will pose standing threats. We assess trading into the end of the week in today's Trading Video.

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