Talking Points:
- It is crucial for trading to establish whether broader markets are prone to range, breakout or trend conditions
- There are two capable drivers for changing the deeper currency of FX activity: monetary policy and 'risk' balance
- Despite the sudden jolt of volatility last week and major policy updates this week, range conditions still prevail
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Looking for trend trades in a market mired in ranges or range setups when the landscape is rife with breakouts makes for exceptionally difficult position selection. Establishing what type of markets we are dealing with from the outset is an effective, first level filter to put us on the right path. Over the past week, we have seen two of the most capable and wide-reaching drivers - risk trends and monetary policy - stir. That would seem to potentially put us in the opening phases of breakouts or trends, but is it really time to position for major USD/JPY, Gold breakouts or S&P 500, Dollar trends?
Technical progress and fundamental catalysts are important elements to establishing the market's bearings. However, it is conviction (often considered momentum on a technical-basis) that truly sets pace. We did have a sudden surge in volatility and drop in risk-oriented markets on Friday the September 9th that carried over to the subsequent week. Yet, we have not seen the full deleveraging that would fuel such the prolific-move-in-waiting. For the monetary policy drive that drove the Dollar to four-years of gains or sent the Euro and Yen tumbling at different phases over the past few years; there is hesitation in the wake of the Fed's hold and BoJ's stimulus twist.
While backdrop conditions may be laying the groundwork for an eventual change in conditions, immediate motivation seems to have dried up. Stray breakouts and trends may develop in this congestion-oriented market, but they will more likely to lose momentum well before generous targets are met. We run through market conditions and look to pairs that are better suited to these circumstances in today's Strategy Video
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