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Fed, BoJ and RBNZ Will Move More than Dollar, Yen and Kiwi

Fed, BoJ and RBNZ Will Move More than Dollar, Yen and Kiwi

2016-09-21 03:21:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist
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Talking Points:

  • Top event risk over the coming 24 hours are the three rate decisions on tap: Fed, BoJ and RBNZ
  • The Bank of Japan's policy decision will define the extreme end of the easing effort and its risk dependency
  • From the Fed, a decision that deviates from its largest peers is also an assessment of health for the US economy

See what live coverage is scheduled to cover key event risk for the FX and capital markets on the DailyFX Webinar Calendar.

We have entered into a particularly risky and likely volatile period for trading. Through Wednesday's session, the fundamental winds will pick up abruptly with the combination of the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) and Federal Reserve's (Fed) rate decisions. These groups are the on exact opposite ends of the monetary policy, but collectively they define the scope of central bank options and its influence over the global financial system. The jolt of volatility that struck on Friday, September 9th put market participants on guard after two months of extreme inactivity. Doubt over the stability of benchmarks like the S&P 500 amid an extraordinary reach for yield has grown mainstream, and the masses are anxiously looking for the shift that would make tangible their fears. This important fundamental mix can achieve that.

From a trade perspective, there are asymmetrical scenarios for market response. However, that does not alter the probabilities of outcomes. After the flush of BoJ reaction from the Yen crosses, trend can arise from the credibility of the central bank's capability to revive their currency devaluation effort. On the outset, USD/JPY is an extremely risky candidate for trade before the Fed release. The EUR/JPY, CHF/JPY and GBP/JPY carry deeper virtues for bullish and bearish reactions. For the Fed, the Dollar and risks are at risk of strong reaction. A strong Dollar response finds appealing conditions in EUR/USD, USD/CAD and AUD/USD. Bearish response best serves GBP/USD and USD/CAD ranges.

It is important to appreciate the importance of these two events for their influence over larger financial market themes. Treading a fine line may return the capital markets to the complacent, yield-seeking mentality of the summer. That is more and more difficult to achieve however. Meanwhile, there is other event risk set to cross the wires during (Brexit data) and after (RBNZ rate decision, PMIs, Euro-area risk meeting, etc). Wednesday offers a spark, but traders should tend to the actual fires. We discuss the key event risk and trading potential ahead in today's Trading Video.

Fed, BoJ and RBNZ Will Move More than Dollar, Yen and KiwiFed, BoJ and RBNZ Will Move More than Dollar, Yen and Kiwi

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