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Dollar and S&P 500 Lose Trend, Retain Volatility; Pound Awaits BoE

Dollar and S&P 500 Lose Trend, Retain Volatility; Pound Awaits BoE

John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist

Talking Points:

  • While the charged Dollar and US equities moves have again lost traction, volatility and volume conspicuously remain
  • A lasting rise in volatility further seeds a long-term market turn, while speculative reach grows even more extreme
  • Top event risk ahead is the BoE and SNB rate decisions with scenarios that may not fit expectations

See how retail traders are positioning in the majors using the SSI readings on DailyFX's sentiment page.

Where the strong risk aversion pull for global equities and advance for the Dollar was revived Tuesday, traction was again lost this past session. For sentiment, the hurdle is exceptionally high and the event risk on tap doesn't readily measure up to the task of engaging such a deep theme. Yet, where trend is not readily supplied; general activity is still dangerously elevated. Volume and volatility have stubbornly held their foothold. Aspects related to these crucial measures of the market suggest a systemic shift may be underway. In the meantime, complacency mixed with volatility is drawing out the extreme speculators. VIX futures along with short-term and leveraged VIX ETFs have surged in popularity recently. Should risk aversion start weighing on liquidity, conditions can get messy.

While the foundation of market conditions continues to crumble, there aren't many critical events or data points to which the masses can hitch their fears. The same is true of the Dollar's stalled trend. The reaction to the Census Bureau statistics Tuesday were a surprise that will be difficult to replicate. For momentum, something extreme enough to measure up to the anticipation of next Wednesday's FOMC decision is necessary and unlikely. That supports conditions that are still consolidation-focused while we still account for the errant volatility. That shapes the appeal of some Dollar based majors, Aussie Dollar crosses and perhaps Canadian Dollar pairs (depending on the activities of oil prices).

Ahead, concentrated event risk draws specific volatility risk for the Swiss Franc and British Pound - again, trends are difficult to muster. Markets expect little from the Swiss National Bank (SNB) rate decision, but their policy shortfalls and fading influence (credibility) may encourage surprises to achieve objectives. It is dangerous enough an impact to monitor even if a lower probability. For the Bank of England (BoE) rate decision, August's stimulus shift is still ringing in traders ears. A follow up so soon is unlikely - and would not likely generate much follow through even if entertained. Yet, if there is a change in assessment of post-Brexit conditions, it can motivate the Pound crosses that are working with significant technical levels. we assess conditions, events and opportunities in today's Trading video.

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.