We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Bullish
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Commodities Update: As of 07:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 0.89% Gold: 0.50% Oil - US Crude: 0.12% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/w82GQITe4o
  • Forex Update: As of 07:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇦🇺AUD: 0.73% 🇳🇿NZD: 0.66% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.57% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.04% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.04% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.67% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/WWr9d5Rcrs
  • Heads Up:🇪🇺 EUR Markit Germany Construction PMI (MAR) due at 07:30 GMT (15min), Actual: N/A Expected: N/A Previous: 55.8 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-04-06
  • Join @DavidCottleFX 's #webinar at 4:00 AM ET/8:00 AM GMT for your weekly update on the top Asia Pacific market drivers that traders should watch this week. Register here: https://t.co/HNf3Axw8s5 https://t.co/hpUaJc9Bji
  • Central bank independence has several advantages and disadvantages. Find out what they are in-depth with @MartinSEssex here: https://t.co/wVFXbbTxf1 https://t.co/9ikESEqhh2
  • Indices Update: As of 07:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Germany 30: 3.92% US 500: 3.83% Wall Street: 3.80% France 40: 3.43% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/YtWrzVloSV
  • RT @JPan_IG: #SINGAPORE TO OFFER S$5.1 BLN OF NEW MEASURES TO OFFSET ECONOMIC DIFFICULTIES, DRAWS AN ADDTIONAL S$4 BLN FROM PAST RESERVES T…
  • Heads Up:🇪🇺 EUR German Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) (FEB) due at 06:00 GMT (15min), Actual: N/A Expected: -0.2% Previous: -1.4% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-04-06
  • What are the six different types of stocks every trader should know? Find out from @WVenketas here: https://t.co/yO3JalkqUU https://t.co/mms1SyumGT
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 95.17%, while traders in US 500 are at opposite extremes with 68.74%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/RWofsGPmX6
Video: Euro and Oil Quiet Through ECB and OPEC, Now for NFPs...

Video: Euro and Oil Quiet Through ECB and OPEC, Now for NFPs...

2016-06-03 02:25:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist
Share:

Talking Points:

  • The Euro slipped after ECB holds its ground, pulling EUR/USD back towards 200-day MA and holding EUR/GBP H&S break
  • NFPs is top event risk ahead with both US equities and Dollar wrestling with resistance
  • OPEC's meeting ends without reductions in output - as expected - and oil's lack of reaction shouldn't reassure

Having trouble trading in the FX markets? This may be why.

We are at a point where the market must seriously weigh convictions. With the S&P 500 just below record highs, Dollar just below its 200-day moving average and oil holding below 50; a complacent climb is no longer an option. Generating the kind of conviction necessary from these levels - bullish or bearish - is no small task. The crowd needs to get behind the move, and that is especially true if we are clearing resistance on any of these market benchmarks.

Neither the ECB rate decision nor OPEC would give a firm footing for decisive moves behind bigger themes like general risk trends or divergent monetary policy. As expected, the central bank maintained its bearing after taking extraordinary steps in December and March - and merely maintaining its exceptional accommodation doesn't seem to be enough. OPEC once again rejected rumors and committed to no production limits.

The NFPs ahead may very well turn in an in-line outcome. However, the deeper veins this event risk taps may leverage the impact of the data regardless of the outcome. Focus on US monetary policy has intensified sharply over the past three to four weeks. The Fed is making a concerted effort to warn that a hike is a high probability at either the June or July meeting; and the implications reach far wider than just the US Dollar. Divergent monetary policy across the world's largest players can lead to blowback to struggling doves and undermine global risk trends. We look at the fundamental scenarios ahead alongside the key technical levels in today's Trading Video.

To receive John’s analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.