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Stocks Set 1999 Record Yet USDJPY Creeps, Kiwi Gives Up RBNZ Gains

Stocks Set 1999 Record Yet USDJPY Creeps, Kiwi Gives Up RBNZ Gains

2016-08-12 02:09:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist
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Talking Points:

  • Risk continued to climb with SPX, Dow and Nasdaq uniformly closing record highs for the first time since Dec 1999
  • Conviction in sentiment is still restrained with equities struggling for momentum and Yen crosses slow to respond
  • The New Zealand reversed all of its gains after the RBNZ cut, Eurozone GDP and US sentiment are top event risk

See how retail traders are positioning in the majors using the SSI readings on DailyFX's sentiment page.

US equity indexes offered up yet another record high close, but there was an added historical milestone to Thursday's progress: it was the first time since the end of 1999 that the three major US benchmarks (S&P 500, Dow, Nasdaq) notched record highs simultaneously. Yet, despite the additional statistical tag; conviction seemed as vapid as ever. Volume continued to stagnate, open interest in VIX futures continued to rise to record highs, momentum in sentiment-driven products was nonexistent and there was even a notable lack of cheer in the headlines for the fresh records.

While there has been a lift in many assets that find their motivation through global investor sentiment over the past week, momentum has been notably restrained. The S&P 500 has advanced little approximately 0.5 percent beyond July's highs. For the FX market, that has translated into lost traction for Yen crosses and Aussie Dollar pairs. A very modest advance was traced out for the USD/JPY and other Yen crosses which looked more like a return to range rather than a committed turn higher. It is important to recognize the market conditions that shape the fundamental lean. While there is a bias towards 'risk', conditions are more akin to range with a notable dearth in participation. Appreciation of these circumstance can help filter trade options and set reasonable expectations.

Looking beyond the oscillations of sentiment trends, data is generating significant volatility for specific marks. The New Zealand Dollar's rally following the RBNZ rate cut was fully reversed through Thursday's close carving out notable technical reversals for pairs like NZD/USD, GBP/NZD and NZD/CAD. Ahead, there is Asian, European and US period event risk on the docket. Dollar, Euro and Pound may stir with the data; but we are quickly counting down to the weekend liquidity drain. We talk about trading through the week's final session in today's Trading Video.

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