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Trade or Fade S&P 500 on Risk, Dollar on Rates, Kiwi on RBNZ Cut?

Trade or Fade S&P 500 on Risk, Dollar on Rates, Kiwi on RBNZ Cut?

2016-08-11 03:13:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist
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Talking Points:

  • The Dollar was the worst performing major Wednesday but there was little driving the move and tech levels are rising
  • Risk-oriented markets eased off their earlier rise with EM, high yield and global equities joining the S&P 500
  • NZD/USD surged after the RBNZ cut less than initially feared, but follow through on a rate cut?

See the DailyFX Analysts' 3Q forecasts for the Dollar, Euro, Pound, Equities and Gold in the DailyFX Trading Guides page.

Volatility was sporadic, but noticeable this past session. Despite these swells though, the general conditions behind the market are oriented towards congestion which de-emphasizes general fundamental themes and bolsters the influence of technical boundaries. For the likes of the S&P 500 which is stretched to the upper threshold of its historical range, that offers little opportunity until the complacency is shaken loose. However, there are many FX and other asset benchmarks that can use this combination of conditions to prompt opportunity.

With a backdrop of tepid conviction, trends are virtually non-existent but breakouts are also facing significantly higher hurdles. For the Dollar, that may amplify the technical influence of nearby levels in the crosses including: the 100-day moving average on the EUR/USD at 1.1225; a collective resistance for AUD/USD between 0.7750-7800; USD/CAD in its well-trodden channel down to 1.3000; and USD/JPY facing the technical and BoJ monitored 100-101 area. For the influential risk-oriented assets, emerging market currency pairs (USD/MXN) to Yen crosses can offer opportunity where S&P 500 lacks. Even pairs that avoid both heavy fundamental influences like AUD/CAD and NZD/CAD are offering technical persuasion.

For event risk that can unsettle the market's complacency and force technical levels - though follow through would remain dubious - the upcoming 24 hours is very light. This morning's RBNZ rate decision generated a strong move from the Kiwi Dollar with NZD/USD and GBP/NZD among pairs that are evaluating the extent of a 'rate cut rally'. Through the rest of the session, scheduled event risk is of lower impact. Friday's docket will pick it back up with European GDP, Hong Kong GDP and US sentiment survey releases. We discuss trading our given market conditions in today's Trading Video.

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