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Video: Strong NFPs Lift Dollar and Equities, But For How Long?

Video: Strong NFPs Lift Dollar and Equities, But For How Long?

John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist

Talking Points:

  • July NFPs beat the consensus forecast by a hefty 75,000 jobs which in turn lifted Dollar and equities
  • The increasingly tepid conviction backing risk trends is growing more perceptible the higher markets reach
  • Key fundamental themes will hang over the market ahead with event risk promising less scope

See how retail traders are positioning in the majors using the SSI readings on DailyFX's sentiment page.

Having trouble trading in the FX markets? This may be why.

The July US employment report capped a strong week for risk appetite. Following accommodative monetary policy moves by the Bank of Japan, Bank of England and Reserve Bank of Australia; the 255,000 net payrolls figure offered a sense of tangible economic improvement that was lacking in the stimulus swell. Yet, the mix of growth and returns has not fundamentally rebalanced to - much less exceeded - inflated asset prices. These markets are still bedeviled by the concern that prices are high, returns are low and participation is thin with an unhealthy dependency on the short-term trader rather than the committed value investor. This cynicism supports a tactical and short-term trading approach.

Over the months and years it has become abundantly clear that stretched markets do not have to rebalance to fundamental equilibrium as soon as the disparity is recognized. Yet, with benchmarks like the S&P 500 floundering at record highs and Yen crosses generating little lift despite direct leverage; opportunity and momentum are redistributed. If cross-asset sentiment holds up and volatility down moving forward, Yen crosses present more appealing options than the highest flying outlets such as the US equity indexes already at their extremes. If sentiment finally rolls over, the subsequent opportunities would be numerous and remarkable but the demand for confirmation of such a profound change in bearing should be set high.

With the flush of strong US data and fresh stimulus injections wearing off through the coming week, the data we are left with is of a more focused type. The RBNZ rate decision and RBA Governor Steven's speech can spur the Kiwi and Aussie Dollars respectively. However, these events - and the emerging market central bank decisions - lack the scope to materially alter global views. For data, sentiment and economic surveys replace data such as NFPs and first reading G-7 GDP figures. Volatility from event risk will therefore be less contagious and full-scale sentiment changes will depend more on the fickle animal spirits. We discuss the current extremes of the markets, the change in landscape ahead and the opportunities on tap in this weekend Trading Video.

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