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Video: Fed Churns Dollar, Markets But Breaks Await GDP Stats, BoJ

Video: Fed Churns Dollar, Markets But Breaks Await GDP Stats, BoJ

John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist

Talking Points:

  • The Fed held rates and maintained language aimed at setting expectations for 2016 rate hikes
  • Markets maintain a 50/50 chance of a Fed hike - not decisive enough to drive the Dollar or risk-focused markets
  • Anticipation now turns to the BoJ, key GDP releases and post-Brexit statistics ahead

See the DailyFX Analysts' 3Q forecasts for the Dollar, Euro, Pound, Equities and Gold in the DailyFX Trading Guides page. Having trouble trading in the FX markets? This may be why.

The first serious wave of event risk this week crossed the wires, and the markets certainly felt the impact. However, volatility did not translate into decisive breaks from recent congestion - much less establish pivotal trends. UK GDP and the FOMC rate decision were this past session's top listings. For scale, the US central bank fell back on its carefully crafted monetary policy statement to keep open the chance for a rate hike or hikes this year. Concern was still there for global risks as well as slow-to-take inflation pressures; but a reference to diminished 'near-term risks' to the economic outlook seemed to fortify a rate hike in the coming months. The Fedspeak did little to encourage the Dollar bulls however and the USDollar slipped back to its 12,050 pivot while EUR/USD climbed back to its 200-day moving average.

For the Pound, a better-than-expected UK GDP reading drew similarly restrained optimism. While beating the official consensus forecast, it still doesn't absolve the risk of Brexit fallout. With the BoE and broader market still concerned over what the country's withdrawal from the EU means for the rise of protectionism, there remains a focus on July data. Ahead, business and consumer confidence survey's for the current month are due. Other noteworthy event risk over the immediate 24 hours presents targeted volatility potential but doesn't reach the scale of Friday's listing. Euro-area sentiment surveys, US trade, key corporate tech earnings and Japanese economic data (CPI, jobless rate, household spending, etc) rank as important but perhaps not trend-defining.

A true change in the fundamental trade winds is a greater risk with the more provocative and systemically-important events on Friday. US and Euro-area 2Q GDP figures, the ECB's bank stress test results and SNB stimulus costs are open to greater surprise while also tapping deeper concerns in the global financial system. That said, title of top volatility risk goes to the BoJ rate decision which has seen the already significant pressure heaped on its shoulders bolstered by Prime Minister Abe's announcement of the expected fiscal stimulus amount. Anticipation and congestion often translates into anxious traders. Acting pre-emptively carries very certain risks but the appeal of significant swings amid otherwise difficult conditions has a way of lowering defenses. We discuss trading in the 'no man's land' period before Friday's high profile docket in today's Trading Video.

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