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Dollar, Euro and Yen Face Overwhelming Event Risk Next Week

Dollar, Euro and Yen Face Overwhelming Event Risk Next Week

2016-07-23 01:20:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist
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Talking Points:

  • Both US equities and the USD advanced this past week with limited fundamental backing to reinforce conviction
  • A crowded economic docket ahead is almost certain to stoke volatility but trend through this storm may be difficult
  • Top events include the FOMC rate decision; US, UK and Eurozone 2Q GDP; BoJ rate decision; and ECB bank stress test

See how retail traders are positioning in the majors using the SSI readings on DailyFX's sentiment page. See the DailyFX Analysts' 3Q forecasts for the Dollar, Euro, Pound, Equities and Gold in the DailyFX Trading Guides page.

Investor sentiment seemed to end this past week with a sense of levity as the S&P 500 ended just off record highs and the Dollar advanced to a five-month high of its own. However, a quick glance at this coming week's docket immediately dashes expectations of peace and quiet moving forward. There is a deluge of high profile events that can charge explosive volatility for individual currencies and many that can readily prove contagion for global investor sentiment. Growth will be a particularly common theme amid the data scheduled for release, but financial stability amid floundering monetary policy will be the most incisive threat.

In the long list of important events to keep track of this coming week, the docket item likely to attract the most press is Wednesday's FOMC rate decision. Given the central bank's hesitance at the June meeting and global markets retaining a sense of uncertainty, a hike is very unlikely. That said, rhetoric that supports a conviction to normalize can carry significant influence - not through expectations of some meager yield advantage, but rather the perception that the US represents one of the few areas where conditions are stable enough to invest. The US 2Q GDP reading will further color that perception for better or worse.

While the US docket may earn the most headline space, more significant market swells are likely to be follow the Japanese and Euro-area events. For Euro traders, a long list of data through the week builds to a Friday crescendo with the release of Eurozone (and some members') 2Q GDP figures. Given the aggressive easing effort of the ECB and the rise of anti-Euro and anti-EU sentiment, this data is dangerously positioned to add fuel to fires. Perhaps more decisive though is the ECB's Bank Stress Test results with Italy's banking system frequent top headline. Pound-for-pound, the BoJ rate decision on Friday poses the greatest threat of FX volatility. The market's expectations have been fanned by Prime Minister Abe's vow for more stimulus. Will the central bank act in concert? Will its efforts be any more effective than January's failed negative rates impact on USD/JPY? We discuss this and the other important events for trade impact in this weekend Trading Video.

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