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Awaiting a USDollar Breakout, Risk Commitment, ECB's Decision

Awaiting a USDollar Breakout, Risk Commitment, ECB's Decision

John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist

Talking Points:

  • USDollar has carved out a remarkably consistent channel despite heavy swings in investor sentiment
  • US equities rose for a third straight week to record highs, but a coup attempt in Turkey unsettles the weekend
  • EUR/USD will face existential themes, risk sensitivity and the ECB rate decision amid a string of events

See the DailyFX Analysts' 3Q forecasts for the Dollar, Euro, Pound, Equities and Gold in the DailyFX Trading Guides page.

A seemingly quiet end to the week was shaken through the final minutes of liquidity with headlines reporting an attempted military coup in Turkey. The news reminded traders - perhaps too late in the week - that complacency carries far more risk when perched at such high prices on a stretched exposure and when liquidity is generally thin. Traders should first and foremost monitor global sentiment first thing next as the threats to stability grow more numerous and the measures on implied risk hit exceptional lows.

Keeping tabs on sentiment means keeping track of the uniform performance of markets that have an express connection to the trade off between risk and reward while also monitoring key themes. Political instability in Turkey may not be a systemic risks for the financial system, but it reminds us that there are unresolve concerns with China's health, Europe's banking system and global monetary policy effectiveness among other issues.

EUR/USD will be uniquely positioned among these major market forces. USDollar itself has held to a remarkably tight range over the past three weeks despite the development behind risk trends - the currency surged in the post-Brexit risk aversion slump. The fallout of the UK's EU Referendum still looms as a systemic reserve risk for the Euro and the threat of an Italian-born European financial crisis has many investors unnerved. A tighter link to risk trends is a high probability. Meanwhile, the ECB will weigh in on monetary policy that has grown outsized and has in turn seen its influence wane. We discuss the major themes, key event risk and the opportunities it may promote in today's Trading Video.

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