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S&P500 Pulls Yen Crosses Higher, Late Ambition but Same Conviction

S&P500 Pulls Yen Crosses Higher, Late Ambition but Same Conviction

2016-07-13 01:18:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist
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Talking Points:

  • Risk appetite continued to press higher with US equities earning another record high
  • USD/JPY noticed its biggest two-day rally since October 2014 (QE upgrade), GBP/JPY since April 2013 (QE intro)
  • Fed forecasts, Brexit fallout, sentiment momentum and Canadian monetary policy will be important themes ahead

Having trouble trading in the FX markets? This may be why.

Risk trends continue to carry the fundamental headlines. US equity indexes posted another record high (on an intraday and close basis) and they drug other sentiment-sensitive assets with them. Aside from the uptick from the likes of emerging markets and high-yield fixed income; the Yen crosses notably joined the run. That is noteworthy considering the substantial deviation between standard bearers like the S&P 500 and USD/JPY over the past months.

The drive in sentiment is dubious when we gauge the record high cost of entry that index levels insinuate against the record low level of income associated to such positions through benchmarks like Treasury yields. That doesn't mean the rally will die out immediately, but it will be difficult to maintained trajectory and pace when the 'traditional' fundamentals aren't offering meaningful support. If you believe there is more run to the sentiment theme, there are better outlets for that view than agents that are already stretched to record highs. Then again, the late-to-the-game options may also present the more ready reversal options should sentiment fall apart in the near future. The Yen crosses and particularly NZD/JPY are of particular interest.

This past 24 hours, in addition to the risk run; we say European concerns stirred, oil prices rise, Japanese stimulus views stoked by Bernanke's visit and Fed forecasts teased by a Treasury auction. In the forthcoming session, we are likely to test another round of key themes - though that does not insinuate strong follow through. Risk will remain a top concern. The Brexit discussion will be revisited with the BoE's credit report coming before Thursday's monetary policy decision. The Fed speaking docket will join import inflation figures to give more structure to the slump in rate expectations. we discuss the top fundamental motivators and biggest movers in today's Trading Video.

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