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SPX Hits a Record High, Brexit Headlines Churn, Euro Risks Deepen

SPX Hits a Record High, Brexit Headlines Churn, Euro Risks Deepen

2016-07-12 02:03:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist
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Talking Points:

  • US equity indexes hit a record high, charging the 'risk' focus even as other assets flagged the same drive
  • A new UK Prime Minister will be brought on, but will that expedite the Brexit process?
  • Dollar and Canadian Dollar pairs pose different opportunities via fundamentals and technical

See how retail traders are positioning in the majors using the SSI readings on DailyFX's sentiment page.

There were a number of key fundamental themes already set to spur the global financial system to action this week, but we cut to the chase on the outset. Risk trends - typically the reactive agent - proved the motivator Monday with a distinct 'risk on' sentiment to kick things off. A general risk appetite was felt across the market, but nowhere was it as productive as with the US equity benchmarks. The S&P 500 tagged a record high to surpass a high water mark that was 14 months old. However, the same issue that has tripped up similar ambitions repeatedly over the past few years remains: is there conviction to keep this drive under power?

The risk momentum is dubious at best, but neither conviction nor skepticism lends itself readily to trade options in the FX or broader market (though risk aversion carries the greater potential by a wide margin). Meanwhile, Brexit seemed to find some degree of progress - though not much in the way of resolution. The September or October timeline for the UK officially marking progress on its withdrawal from the European Union may be expedited with the running for the new Prime Minister having resolved itself with all competition evaporating and Theresa May set to take over for David Cameron as of Wednesday evening. That said, new leadership doesn't translate into improved global conditions.

Meanwhile, the trade options for heavy fundamental themes are gaining girth; but they are not exactly playing out here and now. Short-term opportunities may be arising from a combination of fundamental and technical opportunity however. Among the Dollar pairs, the long-term EUR/USD view has near-term opportunity counterparts in the USD/CAD and USD/CHF. The Canadian Dollar pairs are of particular interest as well. Not all of these pairs have the same connection to oil has that USD/CAD does, but there are a number of attractive technical setups among them. We discuss key fundamental themes and appealing technical situation in today's Trading Video.

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