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NZD/USD Rallies After RBNZ, S&P 500 Keeps Crawling to New Highs

NZD/USD Rallies After RBNZ, S&P 500 Keeps Crawling to New Highs

John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist

Talking Points:

  • Risk appetite trends continues to mark time with a slow but steady climb led by yet another S&P 500 11-month high
  • The Dollar's tumble has run short on steam as we officially enter the communications blackout pre-FOMC
  • NZD is this morning's top mover with an RBNZ hold that sent the currency soaring - the question is does it last?

See how retail traders are positioning in the majors using the SSI readings on DailyFX's sentiment page.

Fresh multi-month highs from risk benchmarks like the S&P 500, US oil prices and high-yield ETFs are a daily occurance this week. Yet, where is the momentum? Clearing technical boundaries often draws in speculative momentum from either the opportunistic speculator or the value-oriented investor. Neither crowd seems to be particularly enthusiastic in the push higher. The tacticians worry about the open room to run already pushing upper boundaries on sentiment while the investors doubt the fundamental backdrop and increasingly lower their confidence in the world's central banks.

The conflict between technical progress and participation creates difficult trading conditions. The presumption for strong trend is a fundamental scenario that looks highly unlikely while an effort to pick a top risks presuming a market that can't keep to the academician's belief that markets always act rationally. Neither is realistic.

Meanwhile, individual currencies and markets are presenting bright spots that deviate from the uneasy quiet of the broader financial system. Early Thursday morning, the RBNZ rate decision generated the most recent monetary policy-driven move. Though they held rates unchanged at 2.25 percent, the Kiwi surged in the wake of the move. NZD/USD and EUR/NZD pressured key technical moves, but is there follow through to these moves or will there be similar pace as the US Dollar and Aussie currency after the NFPs and RBA rate decision respectively? We look at trading conditions and the opportunities is supports and thwarts in today's Trading video.

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