GBP/USD In Volatility’s Grips, SPX and Oil Post 11 Month Highs
- While it may not be backed by robust volume (conviction), risk appetite inches higher with an 11-month SPX high
- Pound volatility remains extreme as EUR/GBP swings lower and GBP/USD temporarily surges intraday
- The RBA bolstered the Australian Dollar, what will the RBNZ decision do to the New Zealand currency?
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Risk appetite continued its crawl higher this past session. While there was limited pomp to the move, both the S&P 500 and US oil prices closed at 11-month highs through Tuesday's close. Yet, the occasion drew neither momentum to fuel the technical achievement nor volume to anchor conviction. On the one hand, we have a delayed Fed reinforcing the outright accommodative press from central banks like the ECB, BOJ and PBoC. On the other, we have a slowdown in global growth (the World Bank contributed it own figures), exceptionally low levels of return, a propensity to abrupt rises in volatility and a troubling lack of confidence in monetary policy as a financial stabilizer. Chase risk at your own peril.
Meanwhile, the Pound received yet another jolt this week with an intraday surge that sent GBP/USD soaring over 150 pips in the span of a minute. A fat finger was initially blamed for the move, but markets of this liquidity rarely provide field for such developments. Extreme volatility sets an unstable foundation; and like Monday's gap down for many Sterling crosses, this is a reflection of uncertain times. This is perhaps one of the best examples of a scenario where it is better to approach with a 'tactical' view rather than try to divine safe passage through a mine field.
The RBA and RBI delivered monetary policy decisions this past session, but the Australian Dollar was more responsive to its own central bank's hold on rates. AUD/USD extended its break and rally above the 200-day moving average. AUD/CAD and AUD/NZD reinforced reversals needed to forestall serious breakdowns. Will the RBNZ be able to generate the same level of motivation from the Kiwi moving forward? EUR/NZD is of particular interest with its technical bearings. We look at risks to pursue and avoid in today's Trading Video.
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