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GBP/USD In Volatility's Grips, SPX and Oil Post 11 Month Highs

GBP/USD In Volatility's Grips, SPX and Oil Post 11 Month Highs

John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist

Talking Points:

  • While it may not be backed by robust volume (conviction), risk appetite inches higher with an 11-month SPX high
  • Pound volatility remains extreme as EUR/GBP swings lower and GBP/USD temporarily surges intraday
  • The RBA bolstered the Australian Dollar, what will the RBNZ decision do to the New Zealand currency?

See how retail traders are positioning in the majors using the SSI readings on DailyFX's sentiment page.See the DailyFX Analysts' 2Q forecasts for the Dollar, Euro, Pound, Equities and Gold as well as our favorite 2016 trading opportunities in the DailyFX Trading Guides page.

Risk appetite continued its crawl higher this past session. While there was limited pomp to the move, both the S&P 500 and US oil prices closed at 11-month highs through Tuesday's close. Yet, the occasion drew neither momentum to fuel the technical achievement nor volume to anchor conviction. On the one hand, we have a delayed Fed reinforcing the outright accommodative press from central banks like the ECB, BOJ and PBoC. On the other, we have a slowdown in global growth (the World Bank contributed it own figures), exceptionally low levels of return, a propensity to abrupt rises in volatility and a troubling lack of confidence in monetary policy as a financial stabilizer. Chase risk at your own peril.

Meanwhile, the Pound received yet another jolt this week with an intraday surge that sent GBP/USD soaring over 150 pips in the span of a minute. A fat finger was initially blamed for the move, but markets of this liquidity rarely provide field for such developments. Extreme volatility sets an unstable foundation; and like Monday's gap down for many Sterling crosses, this is a reflection of uncertain times. This is perhaps one of the best examples of a scenario where it is better to approach with a 'tactical' view rather than try to divine safe passage through a mine field.

The RBA and RBI delivered monetary policy decisions this past session, but the Australian Dollar was more responsive to its own central bank's hold on rates. AUD/USD extended its break and rally above the 200-day moving average. AUD/CAD and AUD/NZD reinforced reversals needed to forestall serious breakdowns. Will the RBNZ be able to generate the same level of motivation from the Kiwi moving forward? EUR/NZD is of particular interest with its technical bearings. We look at risks to pursue and avoid in today's Trading Video.

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