Talking Points:
- Janet Yellen's speech Monday was the last strategic opportunity for the Fed to change rate forecasts - she demurred
- Brexit speculation explodes to start the week with another poll suggesting the 'Leave' campaign gaining
- The risk of an 'accidental' volatility event triggering larger financial move remains dangerously high
See how retail traders are positioning in the majors using the SSI readings on DailyFX's sentiment page.
Fed Chair Janet Yellen didn't make an effort to dissuade the recent surge in certainty that the central bank would be on hold June 15th. However, her remarks notably didn't undermine the option to hike rates in July or one of the subsequent meetings thereafter. With no other official high-level central bank speech or definitive event risk scheduled before the central bank gathering, expectations will likely remain anchored to no change at this month's gathering. However, as is often the case with event risk of this scale, speculation will turn to the future and timing for the Fed's persistent hawkish views. The question for Dollar traders is what can shape those expectations with any authority short of the official FOMC forecasts next week?
Meanwhile, another wave of unscheduled Brexit speculation sent the British Pound reeling to start the week. GBP/USD tumbled to hit (and hold) its 100-day moving average and the EUR/GBP gapped higher to start the week. The genesis of this sharp move was a YouGov poll Monday that showed the 'Leave' camp at 45 percent and only 41 percent behind 'Remain'. Yet, when the Tuesday Times' version of the same poll showed a 43 percent backing for 'Remain' and only 42 percent 'Remain'; the market didn't respond with the same abruptness. This is a side effect of volatile market conditions. Medium to long-term trading will be difficult under such circumstances.
Moving forward, Brexit will remain as active and threatening a risk as we opened with; but Fed speculation will likely cool. Scheduled event risk finds important Australian and Chinese data which should be of particular interest to those with Australian Dollar trades - or plotted setups. While we jump from headline to headline, it is important to keep track of thematic concerns like risk trends. The seismic fundamental shifts for the market rarely offer forewarning, so we need to keep tabs. We discuss what's moving in the markets in today's Trading Video.
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