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Equity Reversal Put on Hold While Dollar, Pound, Yen Position

Equity Reversal Put on Hold While Dollar, Pound, Yen Position

2016-05-26 02:51:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist

Talking Points:

  • The 'risk aversion' potential gathering behind global equities last week has been brusquely disrupted
  • Common technical patterns and trade potential is developing cross Dollar, Pound and Yen crosses
  • Market conditions are still oriented towards shorter-term moves rather than trends, but technicals are alluring

See the DailyFX Analysts' 2Q forecasts for the Dollar, Euro, Pound, Equities and Gold as well as our favorite 2016 trading opportunities in the DailyFX Trading Guides page.

Fundamentals are still lacking for the power to generate conviction and market conditions are still oriented towards short-term swings interspersed with bouts of volatility. But some technical patterns are looking particularly persuasive. The most prominent convergence of technical and fundamental influence rested with global - particularly US - equities through this past week. A familiar head-and-shoulders pattern was building pressure for reversal cross the major indexes that could have tipped the animal spirits to a self-sustaining risk aversion. Alas, that weight fell through with the move higher in shares and 'risk' assets this week.

Risk trends are unlikely to generate a lasting bull trend given the fundamental headwinds the world faces, but it doesn't stall short-term moves from unfolding. The question is what areas of the market are properly tuned to take advantage of short-term speculative shifts. The Yen crosses offer a range of technical setups that are primed for near-term technical breaks, but the implications for follow through differ vastly from the short-term orientation of a pair like AUD/JPY and the more prominent inverse head-and-shoulders pattern GBP/JPY has developed.

Aside from risk trends and its 'agents' in the FX market, there are remarkable technical conditions behind Dollar and Pound pairs. The pictures once again range from big-picture, long-term opportunities to the concentrated and short-term. GBP/USD and EUR/GBP for example look appealing given their dominant patterns, but their longer-term hurdles can represent serious issues for follow through. In contrast, shorter-term AUD/USD, EUR/USD and USD/JPY moves may better suit our market conditions. We discuss these market conditions and their better suitors in today's Trading Video.

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