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Dollar Rally Yet to Take Flight, S&P 500 Still Holds the Neckline

Dollar Rally Yet to Take Flight, S&P 500 Still Holds the Neckline

John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist

Talking Points:

  • The Dollar's breakout this week post-FOMC minutes has failed to translate into a true trend
  • With the full weight of speculative 'risk' expectations behind it, the S&P 500 has refused to break its H&S neckline
  • A rebound for AUD/USD, follow through on the GBP/USD, and make-or-break position for USDJPY and Gold are covered

Having trouble trading in the FX markets? This may be why. See the standings in the Monthly FXCM Mini trading contest.

Time is dwindling to take the critical step to extend major trends for equity, the Dollar and a range of heavy FX players. The weekend liquidity drain is approaching, and momentum behind this week's most impressive assets is flagging. There isn't much scheduled event risk to mark as potential accelerants to flagging conviction, but themes like risk appetite and the ever-deepening interest/fear in monetary policy can always rear their omnipresent head.

On the FX front, the Dollar's strong bullish move following the FOMC's blatant threat of a 'likely' June hike to shock the market out of its skepticism has quickly died down just on the other side of otherwise remarkable technical breaks. Equally impressive momentum from the Pound (bullish) and the Aussie Dollar (bearish) has similarly tapered with the fundamental tailwinds lightening up. However, the opportunities are still present for the tactician with noteworthy technical setups like the USDJPY's push into channel resistance.

Deeper market waters are also struggling to keep the strong currents at the surface. The S&P 500 seem to be at the very cusp of its ostentatious heads-and-shoulders pattern neckline and yet refuses to make the critical decision to break or reverse. A decisive move on this particular index could easily translate into equalyl remarkable moves from global equities and broader risk appetite. With less than 24 hours left, will the fundamental pyres rise? We discuss conditions and opportunities in today's Trading Video.

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