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GBP/USD and AUD/USD Technically Loaded, Fundamentally Conflicted

GBP/USD and AUD/USD Technically Loaded, Fundamentally Conflicted

2016-05-17 02:45:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist
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Talking Points:

  • The Dollar's bullish break to seven-week highs Friday stalled to start this week while the S&P 500 held its H&S
  • Technicals are particularly impressive across the Pound-based crosses with UK inflation and jobs data ahead
  • An Aussie Dollar reversal may be at hand if a run of data starting with the RBA minutes charges it

See how retail traders are positioning in GBP/USD and AUD/USD using the FXCM SSI readings on DailyFX's sentiment page.

There are a range of pairs that are carving out envious technical patterns; but the fundamentals are throttling their potential and may even upend the opportunities before they can catch traction. The most pressing developments through the end of last week - the Dollar's bullish breakout and the S&P 500 closing in on a head-and-shoulders neckline - stalled before the key moves could be secured. Greenback and equities are still loaded for potential, but the momentum has certainly slackened. In the meantime, the profile of the British Pound and Australian Dollar have risen materially. AUD/USD has made a very impressive test and rebound from its 200-day moving average, and a series of important events promises to drum up volatility for the pair. More consistent is the Pound's remarkable positioning throughout its crosses - GBP/USD, EUR/GBP, GBP/CAD, GBP/NZD and GBP/AUD. Similar to the Aussie Dollar, the Sterling faces inflation and employment statistics ahead; but its sensitivity to these indicators as of late has been materially weaker. Will fundamentals finally take the reins off promising setups? We discuss this potential and the scenarios in today's Trading Video.

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