Talking Points:
- The Dollar has closed out its best two-week rally in a year despite a uneven fundamental backing
- Top event risk in the week ahead is the G-7 meeting in Japan which presents a distinct risk to macro trends
- Dollar and Yen crosses are appealing tactical opportunities while 'risk' and Pound may have a little more run
See how retail traders are positioning in the majors using the FXCM SSI readings on DailyFX's sentiment page. And, see the standings in the Monthly FXCM Mini trading contest.
Despite a lack of high profile event risk and little fanfare of June rate speculation, the US Dollar was the best performing major currency this past week. Having cleared resistance on EUR/USD, will the Greenback carry the momentum through to next week? That may be difficult to achieve. While the USDollar Index and EUR/USD are moving into lower boundary ranges; pairs like GBP/USD, AUD/USD and USD/JPY are presented with more significant technical boundaries. For motivation in the week ahead, figures like CPI can stretch to Fed speculation, but the rate outlook itself has seen its influence over currency and capital market curbed. Instead, the dormant risk influence will likely be responsible for the Dollar's next big move. While we haven't seen the scale of risk aversion that can draw out the extreme safe haven in some time, underlying market conditions may ease the transmission. Benchmarks for sentiment ended the past week on a week footing, and US equities are in a position where a decline is easier to spark. Besides keeping an eye on the S&P 500, the Pound and Yen crosses will remain in my crosshairs; while the G-7 meeting over the second half the week presents top fundamental risk. We discuss this and more on trading conditions in today's Trading Video.
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