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USD Rally Fades, CAD Attempts Trend, Risk Aversion Gains Purchase

USD Rally Fades, CAD Attempts Trend, Risk Aversion Gains Purchase

2016-05-05 02:11:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist

Talking Points:

  • Risk trends are heading lower across its range of sentiment-oriented assets but pace will be difficult ahead of NFPs
  • The USDollar rebound has slowed without a fundamental wind that genuinely backs the weakened currency
  • Momentum for has faded for AUD post RBA cut, should we expect CAD selling to persist after the weak trade data?

    See how retail traders are positioning in the majors using the FXCM SSI readings on DailyFX's sentiment page.

    Volatility continues to churn in the FX and capital markets, leading to some tempting technical breaks and early signs of trend. Yet, conviction comes from a reasonable pace via technical and/or fundamental motivation. Neither outlet seems to present a convincing wellspring. The Australian Dollar's tumble following the RBA rate cut was a strong catalyst and took out a number of technical boundaries along the way, but momentum quickly stalled. Should we expect something different from the Canadian Dollar after its tumble following the record trade deficit report? Not unless a profound oil selloff develops. Meanwhile, the Dollar's rebound stirs up deeper fundamental themes and comes after a progressive decline. That has elements of a speculative flip and a return to the currents (like relative monetary policy) that have proven more market-moving over time. Yet, the Greenback too will struggle for traction - especially ahead of Friday's NFPs. Though, we should keep a wary eye on this broad turn in risk trends seen through equities, carry and other related assets. If momentum builds in this elemental outlet, reasoning is secondary. We take stock of the market and tradability of more than a few enticing setups in today's Trading Video.

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